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HANSA 12-2018

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Märkte | Markets Tail

Märkte | Markets Tail winds for large boxships Demand for big gearless vessels rebounds and pushes rate levels up again. In contrast, dry market expectations bursting like a bubble. By Michael Hollmann Overall the container ship charter market continued to lose ground during November, but trends within the sub-segments displayed significant variation. While the size classes from 5,000 TEU down to feeders below 1,000 TEU capacity got under greater pressure, the traditional post-panamax segments above 5,300 TEU benefited from increased demand, falling tonnage availability and a slight recovery in charter market rates from the lows of early November. Looking at the overall utilization of the world container ship fleet (liner-owned and tramp owned), things started to improve again in the aftermath of the Golden Week holiday in China as export shipments were resumed and regular liner sailings reinstated. According to Alphaliner, the global idle fleet dropped to 532,000 TEU as per 12 November (2.4% of total capacity) after already nudging 700,000 TEU. Large gearless vessels with 7,500 TEU and more saw the sharpest relative fall. Apart from the recommissioning of liner-controlled units, tramp charter vessels were also benefiting as several more spot/prompt ships got fixed or extended by charterers. The reactivation of capacity in the larger sectors was consequently mirrored in a steep fall in spot availability for big ships. Spot supply of 7,500 TEU and larger has completely dried out. The latest vessels leaving the market were able to achieve notably higher rates, with one 8,800 TEU unit reportedly obtaining 15,500 $/day in a short period with Maersk Line. This was up from last done of around 13,000 $, according to brokers. Equally, availability of smaller post-panamax vessels of 5,500 to 7,500 TEU dropped from around 20 to just 2 within no more than 4 weeks following a rash of fixtures. Rates here picked up, too, as highlighted by the fixture of the 6,661EU »X-Press Annapurna« together with some more ships at a reported 11,500 $/day for 3-6 months to Hapag-Lloyd. This was around 2,500 $ higher than the previous reported fixture. Some have pointed to a slowdown in newbuilding deliveries during the final Containerships (Period) TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) Feeder / Handy 803 Henrike Schepers 8,300 2009 gearless 18.0 31.5 Samskip Nov 10-12 months North Europe (ext) €6,100 862 Falmouth 11,190 2002 geared 18.0 33.3 MSC Nov 9-11 months Caribbean 7,000 1118 Frisia Lahn 13,720 2008 geared 19.6 38.5 CMA CGM Nov 1-4 weeks Intra-Asia 6,300 1740 Hansa Homburg 23,579 2009 gearless 20.0 70.0 Hapag-Lloyd Nov 3-6 months Intra-Asia (ext) 7,450 1740 Hansa Meersburg 23,387 2007 geared 20.0 70.0 Cosco Dec 6-12 months W. Coast C. America 8,500 1756 Nordpuma 23,629 2015 gearless 18.5 45.0 CMA CGM Nov 5-6 months Intra-Asia (sublet) 11,500 Sub-Panamax 2524 Cardiff Trader 33,673 2003 geared 22.0 74.0 OOCL Nov 3-5 months Intra-Asia (ext) 9,850 2742 Pona 37,905 2007 gearless 22.0 89.0 Evergreen Nov 3-7 months Intra-Asia 10,000 2782 TR Porthos 36,882 2017 gearless 18.0 42.2 Maersk Nov 3-12 months Intra-Asia 13,000 3091 Leto 42,200 2006 geared 22.0 105.0 CMA CGM Nov 4-6 months West Mediterranean 10,500 3534 Nikos P 42,164 2006 gearless 23.5 122.0 CMA CGM Nov 4-9 months Far East 9,750 Traditional Panamax and Widebeam 4253 Synergy Antwerp 50,787 2008 gearless 23.0 160.0 Maersk Nov 4-10 months Gibraltar / W.Africa 10,500 4616 Bernhard Schulte 58.350 2010 gearless 22.5 124.9 Evergreen Nov 1-4 months Far East 10,125 4738 CSL Sophie 65,006 2005 gearless 25.0 195.0 Maersk Nov 2-12 months Far East 7,500 4672 RDO Fortune 62,260 2012 gearless 20.5 96.6 Hyundai Merchant Marine Nov 4-7 months Far East / N. Europe 12,750 Large and very large 5986 SM Tacoma 67,515 2000 gearless 22.0 125.0 Maersk Nov 2-6 months Asia / NZ / WCSA + opt 8,400 6350 Brighton 72,892 2008 gearless 25.5 225+8.5 Yang Ming Line Nov 3-5 months Far East / US West Coast 9,800 6661 X-Press Annapurna 80,282 2008 gearless 25.0 210.0 Hapag-Lloyd Nov 3-6 months Far East 11,500 8204 Navios Unite 101,411 2006 gearless 25.0 255.0 CMA CGM Nov 3-6 months Far East / India 13,000 Bulk carrier (Period) dwt Name Built Charterer Delivery Period Rate ($) Capesize 178,043 Ping May 2010 NYK Xingang, 15-17 December 4-7 months, redelivery worldwide 12,000 174,186 Sideris GS 2006 Berge Bulk Tianjin, 15 November 1-4 months, redelivery worldwide 8,500 first 30 days / 15,350 Panamax / Kamsarmax 82,193 Maia 2009 Glencore Singapore, 12 November 1.5-4.5 months, redelivery worldwide 13,300 76,588 Genco Thunder 2007 United Rotterdam, 24 November 11-13 months, redelivery worldwide 98% 4TC + 525,000 Supramax / Handy 61,298 Star Pathfinder 2015 Oldendorff Makassar, 25-26 November 2-4 months, redelivery PG-Japan range 12,250 63,756 Porto Leone 2014 Medmar US Gulf prompt 5-6 months, redelivery S'pore-Japan 18,000 Charter deals November / all information without guarantee 10 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 12

Märkte | Markets Orders & Sales New Orders Container Compared to the previous reporting period, contracting activity increased. Wan Hai has confirmed an order of 20 vessels with JMU and GWS. The contract includes 8+8 optional 3,036 TEU vessels with JMU and 12+4 2,038 TEU ships with GWS. For the 3,036 TEU ships, Wan Hai pays 41,4 mill. $ each and 26,3 mill. $ each for the 2,038 TEU ships. Evergreen ordered four 2,500 TEUs at Jiangnan. The vessels are hawked to cost around 28 mill. $ each. Namsung placed an order for 1+1 1,000 TEU ship at Daesun for 18 to 20 mill. $ each. Secondhand Sales Container Sales volumes were low. Three panamax vessels and seven feeder changed hands. The 2012-built panamax »Argos« was sold to Borealis Maritime for 14,7 mill. $, while Navios took the 2010 built 4,330 TEU sisters »Bermuda« and »Bahamas« for an average price of 11,9 mill. $. In smaller segments, the 2003 built »SITC Bangkok« was sold to undisclosed buyers for 7,3 mill. $. Demolition Sales On the recycling side, demolition activity continued its pace with additional 18 vessels (29,000 TEU) sold for scrap. Most of the vessels were less than 2,000 TEU. The only bigger units sold were the »Hyundai Glory« (4,648 TEU) and the »Magnavia« (2,078 TEU). Prices ranged between $ 335 and $ 478 per ldt. Demolition rates were supported by the broad firming trend in iron ore prices, which rose by nearly 4% to 74,80 $/t during the last four weeks. Jan Göldner COMPASS ConTainer ship t / c market 545 520 495 470 445 420 19.06.18 22.11.18 Month on Month 430 - 6.5 % months of the year as one of the stabilizing factors for the supply side. As far as the container trades are concerned, all the data so far suggests reasonable growth in the low-to-mid single-digit range this year. Despite small revisions to world GDP growth by agencies such as the International Monetary Fund, shipping analysts have hardly revised their forecasts for container trade growth down. Also, the latest sharp falls in crude and bunker prices injected some more optimism. The hope is that the cost reductions will be positively reflected in earnings over the coming weeks and months, lifting the appetite among operators for service expansion and additional charter tonnage. There has been no relieve so far for the main charter segments from panamax down to feeders, though. As common around this time of the year, spot availability remains high or even goes up further. The 1,500-1,800 TEU segment is facing the greatest shortage of employment opportunities. It is the panamax and the gearless 2,700/2,800 TEU segments, though, that are recording the fastest rise in spot availability. The result was an immense rise in pressure on rates. In the panamax space, 5,000 TEU maxi-panamaxes suffered heavy falls down to mid 7,000’s $/day while baby-panamaxes of 4,200/4,300 TEU were still able to maintain 10,000 $ in Asia and 10,500 $ in Europe. The challenge for owners during the next weeks will be to halt a further deterioration into four-digit levels. Owners of gearless 2,800 TEU units already had to accept a drop below 10,000 $ in several cases. Only the popular German-built Aker 2700 types were still seen obtaining 10,000 $ in the Far East. Geared and gearless standard 1,700 TEU vessels saw fixing levels slip below 8,000 $, first in the Atlantic and then in Asia, too. Only the newest, most advanced designs such as the Topaz 1700 continue to be able to avoid idle periods as operators cannot afford to forego the efficiencies these vessels offer. Dry market hopes faded Container freight market WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,543 $/FEU + 8.1 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 2,441 $/FEU - 6.9 % Average rates spot / up to 4 weeks validity WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry Dry cargo / Bulk Baltic Dry Index 1093 - 28.0 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Hopes of a year-end rally in the dry cargo market have finally faded as spot time charter earnings for capesize bulkers crashed down below 8,000 $/day, only to Capesize 5TC average Panamax 4TC average Supramax 6TC average Handysize 6TC average 10,853 10,996 10,950 9,176 - 44.0 % - 13.3 % - 12.5 % - 6.0% see a modest rebound to 10,853 $/day by Forward / ffa front month Dec’18 ($/day) the time HANSA went to press. Spot demand was anaemic during Capesize 180k 13,508 - 39.0% November at a time when most market participants were awaiting a final import push for iron ore and coals from China. Its national reform and development Panamax MPP 10,617 - 14.2% commission put an end to all ho- TMI Toepfer’s Multipurpose Index pes when it announced an import ban November ’18 for additional coal cargoes and the suspension $ 7,508 of customs clearance for all dis- charged coal until January. With the upcoming November ’17 »winter curbs« in mind, Chinese $ 6,581 buyers are believed to have brought a lot of shipments forward to the third quarter already. The index is based on a 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel Lack of coal volumes also left plenty of panamax bulkers open in the In- from operators, owners and brokers. for a 6-12 months TC and represents the monthly assessment dian Ocean and the Pacific, with the East Coast of South America offering limited support to the market. Spot earnings Tankers Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 1126 + 0.4 % drifted notably lower, though not as sharp as for »capes«. For smaller geared bulkers, rate levels continued to weaken Baltic Clean Tanker Index shortsea / Coaster 654 + 14.5 % at a more moderate pace. Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 3,000 €/d + 15.4 % The shortsea dry bulk trades in Europe, HC Shortsea Index 16.93 + 5.0 % however, finally enjoyed a long-anticipated firmer trend, with spot tonnage clearing ISTFIX Shortsea Index 715 + 21.5 % out and rate levels picking up both in Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index North Europe and the Mediterranean. All tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix the broker assessments in our »compass« Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea bar showed notable improvements. n Data per 23.11.2018, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 12 11

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