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HANSA 10-2017

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Märkte | Markets Rate

Märkte | Markets Rate rises sustainable so far The global container ship charter market is in robust shape as early autumn fixing resumes, writes Michael Hollmann Fixing activity and tonnage tightness continued to beat expectations over the past month, with charter rate levels still nudging upward during September. The upward momentum decreased a bit, yet average rates for the main charter vessel sectors from 1,100 TEU to 4,250 TEU are up 2.6% month-on-month, according to the New ConTex which climbed from 388 to 398 points over the past four weeks. Demand for large and very large gearless ships in excess of 5,500 TEU continues to be a major driver for the latest strength in the market. However, the New ConTex also reflects significant improvements for panamax and midsize vessels, with 12 month periods for geared 1,700 TEU types lifted by 4.2% to over 7,900 $/day and 12 month periods for 4,250 TEU baby panamax types pushing up 11% to almost 9,000 $/day. Global container traffc remains on track for much-improved growth this year as economic activity based on purchasing manager indices (PMI) gained further strength across most major economies. PMI’s for the US and for Europe remain at multi-year highs and still improving while the situation in China, India and Brazil brightened up again, too, after a weaker patch in May, June and July. The result has been a formidable rise in the JP Morgan Global PMI to 53.9 points in August, indicating the strongest growth push in the world economy since early 2015. All this is good news for container shipping, of course, which is set for a 5.0% increase in cargo liftings on fronthaul routes this year, according to London shipbroker Howe Robinson. Fittingly, the idle container ship fleet witnessed another contraction to just 143 units with an aggregate capacity of 355,250 TEU in early September based on data by Alphaliner. This represents just 1.7% of the total cellular fleet worldwide. Concerns over a seasonal decline in charter demand proved unfounded so far, although there is no doubt that it is going to happen to some degree during the fourth quarter, as every year. In the largest sectors, Seaspan is reported to have already fixed a quartet of 10,000 TEU newbuilding due for delivery from February 2018 for long periods. Market sources say that the ships are hired out to CMA CGM ex yard for 36 month periods at rates around 28,000 $/day. This compares favourably with other recent fixtures of even larger vessels, fixed at lower rates, albeit for shorter periods that would allow owners to re-employ them at higher rates if the market picks up in the meantime. Some 2011-built 10,000 TEU tonnage got covered at 21,000-22,000 $/day while the Costamare-managed »Cape Kortia« (11,010 TEU, 2017) secured a 12 month employment for transpacific trading with Evergreen at 27,000 $/day. Latest megaship TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) FEEDER / HANDY 698 Max Prince 8200 2008 g´less 17.3 27.0 Hyundai MM Sep 2-4 months Intra-Asia 4550 925 Contship Joy 12612 2007 g´less 18.5 39.5 Seaconsortium Sep 5-12 months Spanish trade (ext) 5950 1118 Vega Azurit 13760 2008 geared 19.6 42.0 Eimskip Sep 4-9 months North Europe 7500 1296 Varamo 18700 2007 geared 19.6 45.0+3 Streamlines /Seatrade Sep 12 months Europe/Caribbean 8500 1300 AS Floriana 18550 2008 g´less 19.0 45.0+3 Maersk Sep 5-8 months Intra-Med 7150 1730 Nordpuma 23800 2015 g´less 18.5 45.0 Hyundai MM Oct 4-7 months Korea / Thailand (ext) 9350 1740 Wellington Strait 23600 2012 geared 18.1 51.4+3.5 CMA CGM Sep 8-12 months Australia / New Zealand 8150 1740 Cape Nabil 23600 2010 g´less 20.6 65.0 NYK Line Oct 5-6 months Intra-Asia (ext) net 7700 1794 FS Ipanema 25860 2009 geared 20.5 58.1 King Ocean Sep 5-7 months Florida / Caribs (ext) 7950 1970 Frisia Bonn 28632 2010 g´less 16.0 39.0 Admiral CL Sep 9-12 months Israel/ Turkey trade 8100 SUB-PANAMAX 2478 Rossini 33900 2005 geared 22.5 84.2+4 Maersk Sep 3-6 months Med / West Africa (ext) 8250 2566 Hannah Schulte 34700 2006 geared 22.1 89.5+6 CMA CGM Sep 11-13 months Med / WCSA (ext) 9500 2714 Ariana 38700 2006 geared 21.6 85.5+5 RCL Oct 6 months Intra-Asia 9350 2750 Northern Vivacity 37800 2005 g´less 20.0 61.0 Evergreen Oct 5-7 months Intra-Asia net 9500 2824 Maersk Jaipur 39418 2008 g´less 24.0 95.0 Maersk Oct 3-6 months FE / New Zealand (ext) 9450 TRADITIONAL PANAMAX AND WIDEBEAM 4250 Navios Amarillo 50700 2007 g´less 24.5 133.0 CMA CGM Sep 3-6 months Far East / US Gulf 9325 4252 Zim Xiamen 50886 2006 g´less 24.5 133.0 Simatech Oct 5-7 months Far East / India 9250 4253 Beatrice Schulte 50702 2009 g´less 23.3 Heung-A Oct 5-8 months (ext) 9000 4606 Northern Priority 59186 2009 g´less 21.0 93.0+9 COSCON Sep 4-6 months Far East / India 9250 5466 Clemens Schulte 65357 2014 g´less 16.0 38.0 KMTC Oct 5-7 months Far East / India (ext) 14500 5470 Balbina 65710 2010 g´less 24.1 Emirates SL Sep 1 round voyage FE / Middle East (ext) 11200 LARGE AND VERY LARGE 6927 Alexandra 80274 2013 g´less 21.0 93.0 Mitsui OSK Sep 50-70 days N. Europe / S. Africa 18500 8344 Seamax Bridgeport 99508 2004 g´less 25.0 248.0 MSC Sep 5-6 months transpacific 17700 8814 Northern Javelin 198677 2009 g´less 25.4 249.0 Hapag-Lloyd Oct 5-7 months Far East / Europe (ext) 17950 9954 Athenian 118835 2011 g´less 22.0 166.0 Hapag-Lloyd Sep 40-50 days transpacific (ext) 22000 9954 Athos 118835 2011 g›less 22.0 166.0 MSC Sep 2-3 months Far East / West Africa 21000 11010 Cape Kortia 134869 2017 g›less 22.0 Evergreen Oct 12 months transpacific trade 27000 Charter deals / all information without guarantee 12 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 154. Jahrgang – 2017 – Nr. 10

Orders & Sales New Orders Container While in August rumor already had it, the orders of record container vessels by two top-notch liner operators were confirmed in September. The letters of intent we reported on in our previous issue have been signed by CMA CGM and Chinese shipyards Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding and Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding at the beginning of September. The nine 22,000 TEU container vessels are scheduled to be delivered from 2019 onwards. Meanwhile Korean shipbuilder DSME stated that it signed contracts on the construction of five 22,000 TEU container vessels with a European carrier. Though by the time orders by CMA CGM and MSC further testify to the continued appetite for this type of capacity although the ripple effects on charter demand remain to be seen. Surprisingly, conventional panamax tonnage has seen quite a fixing spree and rate improvements over the past months although charterers now seem to adopt a more cautious approach as volumes seem to have peaked. Nevertheless, the facts are quite stunning: Spot/prompt supply of panamaxes including laid up ships fell sharply from 34 in July to 13 ships in mid-September. At the time of writing, rate levels in Asia were hovering around 9,000 $/day. Below 4,000 TEU, tonnage demand has been quite brisk as well, especially for gearless 2,700/2,800 TEU units and for geared/gearless 1,700 TEU ships. Weekly fixture lists continued to show good fixing volumes in the gearless 2,800 TEU sector, with rate levels still north of 9,000 $/day for requirements in Asia but much lower (in the 7,000’s of writing MSC did not confirm being the ordering party, the Geneva-based liner operator is hawked around to be behind the order. For Daewoo this order marks an important victory in the competition for market share since it is its first container ship order since 2015. Additionally MSC is said to have ordered further six vessels at Samsung. However, so far Samsung has not confirmed nor denied the rumors. Moreover Japanese shipbuilder Tsuneishi has secured an order by Mitsui. Four 1,900 TEU container ships will be built at its Cebu site in the Philippines. Secondhand Sales Container In the second half of August and the first half of September the amount of transacted vessels decreased. However, recent sales hint at increasing price levels for both sub-panamax and former panamax vessels. This could also explain the decline of activity mentioned above, because sellers and buyers price expectations might deviate from each other. Thus it may take a while until a new price level will be accepted on both sides of the table. Demolition Sales Overall scraping activity remained at par with the previous reporting period. Nevertheless, an increment of recycling sales could be observed recently. The recent increment might be attributed to the end of the monsoon season on the Indian subcontinent. Andreas Mietzner $/day) in Europe. Brokers are warning now that growing redeliveries of ships may apply greater pressure on rates unless fixing activity increases further. In the 1,700 TEU segment, availability is reported to have gone up again, too, although this is not reflected in rates so far. »The market remains very balanced,« commented one leading international broker who still counts a number of uncovered requirements for this type of tonnage by charterers. One standard 1,700 TEU Wenchong type meanwhile got fixed at more than 8,000 $/day in the Pacific, but this was for trading to and from Australia (a more regulated, expensive trade in terms of opex). Other ships pushing for 8,000 $/day for delivery in Asia have failed so far, with owners realistically rating their vessels at high ,000’s $/day, brokers said. Modern, economic 1,700 TEU types such as the Topaz design meanwhile recorded further slight improvements up to mid ,000 $/day, it was reported. M COMPASS CONTAINER SHIP T/C MARKET 420 380 340 300 CONTAINER FREIGHT MARKET Märkte | Markets Month on Month 398 +2.6 % WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,451 $/FEU -16.6 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,546 $/FEU -4.6 % DRY CARGO / BULK Average rates spot/up to 4 weeks validity WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry Baltic Dry Index 1,470 + 22.5% Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 21,325 + 19 % Panamax 4TC average 12,170 + 22.8 % Supramax 6TC average 11,781 + 23.0% Handysize 6TC average 8,644 + 24.6% Forward / ffa front month October ($/day) Capesize 180k 21,870 + 29.3 % Panamax 12,510 + 23.7% MPP 20.04.17 21.09.17 BMTI INDEX EUROPE Shortsea freights finally on the rise Following grain harvests on the continent and in the Black Sea region the shortsea market finally got its long-awaited shot in the arm, with tonnage supply significantly reduced and rates on the way up. German market research firm BMTI marked its European Short Sea Index (EUSSIX) up by 8.5% to 22.45 since the middle of August based on latest fixture information. Sentiment has been steadily improving as grain flows get under way, while storm-related delays in the North and Baltic Sea added to the tonnage tightness, BMTI said. »For the time being, the northern market has become an owner’s game,« it noted. Rising freights are already boosting vessel earnings to levels not seen since early this year, if at all. Chartering broker Norbroker marked up its earnings assessment (tce) for 3,500 dwt coasters employed in the spot market by around one third to 2,800 €/day since August. The Istfix index, published in Istanbul and covering the Mediterranean and Black Sea markets, rose by 8% month-on-month. Daily vessel earnings in the Med/Black Sea trades are reported at an average 2,636 $/day for 4,000-6,000 dwt tonnage and at 3,580 $/ day for 6,000-8,000 dwt types. M The index is based on a 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6-12 months TC and represents the monthly assessment from operators, owners and brokers. TANKERS Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 752 + 20.0 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 610 + 20.0 % SHORTSEA / COASTER Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 2,800€/d + 33.3 % HC Shortsea Index 15.09 + 3.0 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 618 + 8.0 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Data per 21.09.2017, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal – 154. Jahrgang – 2017 – Nr. 10 13

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