HANSA 08-2019

Märkte | Markets No

Märkte | Markets No summertime blues – markets soaring! Charter rates in the dry bulk and container ship segments are defying normal seasonal patterns. For many vessel classes the trend is showing straight up. By Michael Hollmann Charter markets have become used to slowing activity and pressure on hire rates during the summer holidays. This year is the exact opposite for most vessel types in the dry cargo and and also – albeit to a lesser extent – in the container ship market. Charter rate barometers for container ships such as the Howe Robinson Containership Index and the New ConTex are still up month-on-month by mid-/late July. Instead of a typical summer dip, further increases are anticipated in the weeks to come based on limited spot/prompt supply of ships and strong supply for larger gearless ships. The one constant feature throughout the first half of the year was brisk demand for traditional post-panamax ships, with market rates firming up rapidly during the second quarter. Enquiry from charterers has not waned much, but the pace of fixing slowed simply because there are hardly any tramp vessels available anymore. Since the middle of June, attention by operators has therefore shifted to traditional panamaxes. Panamaxes in hot demand According to brokers, this shift and the rapid increase in fixing of panamaxes took everyone by surprise. Spot availability reduced sharply as a result while fixing levels for 4,250 TEU baby panamaxes for 6-8 month durations have soared by more than 3,000 $ (+30-35%) within four weeks – »something we have rarely seen before,« as one broker remarked. Where ships were achieving 9,000-9,500 $/day one month ago, the latest benchmarks are now in the 12,500-13,000 $-range. Hong Kong-based TS Lines was reported to have extended the 4,255 TEU »Harrier Hunter« for 8 months at 12,700 $/day, net of address commission. Allowing for a typical »add com« for the liner operator of 2.0% or higher, the total rate would breach ,000. Elsewhere, Ocean Network Express was named as charterer of the 4,252 TEU »Holsatia« at 12,500 $/day for 7-9 months. Both are for delivery in the Far East in August. The result of this rally in the east was that the rate imbalance between the Atlantic and Pacific has been turned around. Fixing levels for panamaxes in Asia are now almost 1,000 $ higher than for Europe/Mediterranean delivery, whereas before levels in the Atlantic used to be around ,000 higher. Latest fixtures/ extensions on the continent were reported at just below 12,000 $/day. A number of factors seem to have converged to lend a boost to panamax demand, say brokers. First of all, overall cargo volumes has held up better than expected despite the US/China trade war and slowdown in GDP growth. Clarksons Platou forecasts a 3.4% increase in global loaded container traffic this year, versus just 2.9% fleet capacity growth. Some have pointed, in particular, to rising volumes in the Asia/North America trade as a driver for panamax demand. No units left available Secondly, panamaxes are benefiting from tightness in supply of bigger post-panamaxes. Those would probably be the first choice for charterers as they seek to maximise their economies of scale. However, since there are no units left available, panamaxes are next in line for them. Fixtures of post-panamaxes have slowed down to just one per week or per fortnight as now and then some unexpected positions still come up, but only in the 5,500- 6,500 TEU classes. Latest transactions showed improvements of at least around 500-1,000$ over last done, as illustrated by the 2002-built 6,400 TEU »Performance« at 21,500 $/day to OOCL. Cosco fixed the 2002-built »E. R. Sweden« (6,008 TEU) at 16,850 $/day for 9-11 months, while the modern wide-beam 6,881 TEU »Rhodos« is reported to have fetched even 24,250 $ / day for 12 months trading in a new Asia-US Gulf string. The smaller vessel classes below 4,000 TEU are still lacking the same kind of momentum. However, the picture seems to have brightened up a little, especially for 3,000-3,500 TEU vessels, gearless Ab sofort gilt auch für unser exklusives Angebot zu »Raten, Preisen, Indizes«: In unserem neuen Portal HANSA+ vereinen wir eine umfangreiche Übersicht über alle wichtigen Kennzahlen der Schifffahrtsmärkte. Sichern Sie sich den Zugriff auf Fracht- und Charterraten in der Container-, Bulk- und Tankschifffahrt, Bunkerpreise, MPP-, Shortsea- und Umschlagindizes, Ölpreise und vieles mehr … Erfahren Sie mehr über alle Optionen jederzeit unter www.hansa-online.de. 8 HANSA International Maritime Journal 08 | 2019

Märkte | Markets New Orders Container Contracting activity in the newbuilding market for container ships remained on a low level. KMTC ordered two 2,500 TEU vessels at Hyundai Mipo. The ships will be built for a price of 34,8 mill. $ per vessel. Furthermore, South Korean Dongjin ordered one 1,000 TEU vessel at Dae Sun for a price of around 19 mill. $. In the Ultra Large Container Ship segment projects are under discussion. Hapag-Lloyd is in the early stages of a series of potentially six 23,000 TEU ships. However, it does not seem likely 2,700/2,800 TEU and for 1,700 TEU vessels, all of them being in demand in Asia. Rate levels are mostly still in a sideways trend, though. The fact that this rebound in demand comes during the holiday period, could be a precursor of a stronger rallye after the holidays, some say. Modest improvements could already recorded for modern Topaz 1700 (gearless 1,700 TEU) and for standard Wenchong 1700 types, that any firm order will materialize in the near future. Secondhand Sales Container During this reporting period, the number of transactions decreased when compared to the last publication. Nevertheless, a few deals across almost all segments, ranging from 700 to 8,500 TEU, were executed. In the feeder segment, values for many ship types declined. Sea Lead, for example, purchased the B170 type »Sagittarius« for a price of 3,7 mill. $. In the larger size segment, Danaos bought the 2006 built 8,500 TEU vessel »Parisfal« for a price of 25 mill. $. Demolition Sales Demolition activity continued to decrease with in total four vessels sold for scrap during the second part of June and the first part of July. Recycling markets are going through the monsoon season, which is characterized by decreasing demolition activity on the Indian subcontinent. The ratio of baby panamaxes sold for scrap was high. The rise in charter rates over the past weeks had no positive impact on asset values and couldn’t prevent the ships from being scrapped. Jan Göldner with rate levels edging from 11,000 to 11,500 $/day and towards mid 8,000’s $/day, respectively. Some more activity also emerged from specialist reefer carriers. Dole reportedly fixed the 2008-built 2,797 TEU »Andino« (geared, 900 reefer plugs) for 2 months at upper ,000’s in the Caribbean while Seatrade-affiliate Streamlines took the 2016-built 2,506 TEU »Nordserena« for 4-5 months at 13,500 $/day. n Dry bulk market rocketing – mpp segment subdued Meanwhile the dry cargo market staged a true rallye over the past month, led by capesizes and panamaxes whose average spot t/c earnings nearly doubled. Supramaxs and handysizes posted respectable, but more modest, increases, too, spurred by high demand and tight availability on the East Coast of South America, the US Gulf and the Black Sea – the latter finally tipping the scales in favour of owners. The concurrence of gathering grain seasons in the Black Sea and North America with continued strong flows ex ECSA lends good support to the smaller classes. However, overall the main stimulus for the dry markets supposedly comes from increased iron ore flows which mainly benefits capesizes and also panamaxes to a lesser extent. Demand for the iron-making ingredient remains buoyant led by China where monthly steel production growth peaked at 10% year on year recently. Iron ore prices surged to multi-year highs and the return of export capacity by Brazilian miner Vale gave the freight market in the Atlantic a shot in the arm. The market for project cargo and smaller breakbulk lots, by contrast, has not enjoyed any improvements lately. The Toepfer Multipurpose Index for 12,500 dwt multipurpose ships slightly weakened in July as many operators seemed to be sitting on the fence, gauging the freight markets. Time charter rates for slightly smaller 10,000- 11,000 dwt ships with 60-80 t cranes saw spot hire rates slide from mid- 6,000 to just below 6,000 $/day in the Atlantic recently, according to brokers. In Europe, export cargo volumes tapered off in July, with agents lamenting a lack of 4,000-5,000 t general cargo lots and project cargoes necessary to fill 12,000-20,000 dwt ships for trips out east. June had seen more dry cargo stems of 10,000-20,000 dwt ex Baltic Sea (petcoke etc.), offering employment for medium to bigger mpp vessels, but that appears to have come to an end.mph COMPASS Container ship t / c market 450 400 350 Month on Month406 • + 2.0 % Container freight market WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,399 $/FEU - 4.1 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,581 $/FEU + 13.9 % Dry cargo / Bulk Baltic Dry Index 2170 + 81.7 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 32.765 + 94.2 % Panamax 4TC average (74k) 17.348 + 96.3 % Supramax 10TC average (58k) 11.282 + 32.9 % Handysize 6TC average 7.225 + 11.4 % Forward / ffa front month Aug´19 ($/day) Capesize 180k 26,567 + 52.8 % Panamax 74k 14.46 + 50.4 % MPP July ’18 $ 7,216 17.01.19 TMI Toepfer’s Multipurpose Index July ’19 $ 7,476 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6-12 months TC Tankers Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 625 - 7.5 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 491 - 1.4 % Shortsea / Coaster Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 2,400 €/d + 4.3 % HC Shortsea Index 15.60 - 3.0 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 473 - 3.9 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Bunkers 18.07.19 IFO 380 Rotterdam $/t 394 + 12.9 % MGO Rotterdam $/t 586 + 8.5 % Forward / Swap price Q3 / 19 IFO 380 Rotterdam $/t 283 - 16.0 % Data per 18.07.2019, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal 08 | 2019 9