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HANSA 08-2018

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Märkte | Markets

Märkte | Markets Charter rates now eroding The onset of the northern hemisphere holiday season took its toll on demand for container ships and market rates, service closures drive idle fleet up again, reports Michael Hollmann The writing has been on the wall, but now it’s a fact that the sustained rise in charter rates for container vessels has come to an end. Whether the market is just pausing for breath as it always does during the holiday-related summer lull or whether this is a true change of direction, remains obscure. Rates have not fallen over a cliff, but the slowdown in tonnage demand since June coupled with fears over the escalation of tariffs in the trades between the US and China and to a lesser degree between the US and Europe are weighing down on sentiment. Even the staunchest optimists are doubting whether the charter market will see new high benchmarks during the second half of the year. For the first time in many months, the New ConTex is now down month-onmonth by ca. 2.3% while the Howe Robinson Containership Index even fell by 3.4% in the period between 20 June and 18 July. The idle fleet monitored by Alphaliner – probably the best indicator of global container fleet utilisation – continued to edge up, reaching 315,175 TEU or 1.4% of total fleet capacity as per 9 July. The number of units idle increased to 122, with 98 of them controlled by tramp shipowners. The number of those ships prompt/ spot available for charter employment has gone up considerably, too, thus generating pressure on rate levels. Only in the 4,250 TEU baby panamax segment, 8 vessels were available at short notice (14 days forward), most of them in Asia, during the middle of July, according to one estimate. Spot supply has also been on the rise in the gearless 2,700/2,800TEU sector, the 1,700 TEU and the 1,000-1,200 TEU sectors. One UK broker estimated that spot/prompt supply across all segments soared from 13 in April to 60 units in mid-July. This includes a handful of 8,000- 10,000 TEU ships which are causing significant downward pressure in this relatively small, illiquid segment. Expectations have been undermined by the prospect of a trade war which would hit one of the most important trading routes CONTAINERSHIPS (PERIOD) TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) FEEDER / HANDY 631 Emona 9,793 2009 geared 14 20 CNAN Jul 3 mos Western Med (ext) 5,350 750 Enforcer 9,450 2004 g’less 18 33 CMA CGM Jul 5-6 mos N. Europe trade (ext) €5,900 969 Leonie 13,059 1997 geared 19 44.5 Transinsular Jul 7-8 mos Portugal /Atlantic Islands 8,500 1042 Chattanooga 12,580 2012 g’less 18.5 27.5 + 3 X-Press Jul 2-3 mos Intra-Asia (ext) 8,800 1118 Vega Azurit 13,684 2008 geared 19 38.5 X-Press Jul 2-4 mos Mediterranean 8,300 1155 Asiatic Wave 12,560 2007 g’less 18.5 43.5 Sinokor Jul 4-6 mos Intra-Asia 8,500 1338 Pocahontas 17,108 2007 geared 20 46.8 + 3 CMA CGM Jul 9-11 mos Med / West Africa 9,950 1678 Bomar Vanquish 22,308 2001 geared 21 67.5 + 3.2 X-Press Feeders Jul 2-3 mos Cont / Spain 10,500 1730 Wehr Schulau 23,026 1999 geared 19 48.6 + 3.3 UAFL Jul 10-12 mos Persian Gulf / E. Africa 11,100 1740 Cape Nabil 23,550 2010 geared 20 70 TS Lines Jul 2-4 mos Intra-Asia 10,500 SUB-PANAMAX 2474 Julius-S 33,500 2004 geared 22 66.5 Melfi Jul 8-12 mos Med /Can /Cuba / Mex 12,500 2782 Bright 37,000 2018 g’less 18 48.7 X-Press Feeders Jul 2-4 mos SE Asia / Bangladesh (ext) 14,000 2824 AS California 39,446 2008 g’less 22 92 + 5.5 Maersk Jul 2-4 mos Med / Red Sea (ext) 11,950 3426 Rio Centaurus 42,650 2010 g’less 22.4 115 CMA CGM Jul 13-15 mos S. Afr / WAF / ECSA (ext) 12,800 3635 Hansa Granite 47,000 2014 geared 23.3 100 Evergreen Jul 10-12 mos Caribbean 14,200 TRADITIONAL PANAMAX AND WIDEBEAM 4253 Seaspan Ningbo 50,790 2002 g’less 23.5 145.3 Cosco Jul 5 mos Intra-Asia (ext) 13,250 4398 Patraikos 51,440 2010 g’less 24.1 130 + 6 TS Lines Jul 42 days Asia /Australia (ext) 12,650 4992 Vermont Trader 67,677 2004 g’less 24.3 164.5 + 7.2 OOCL Jul 4-6 mos Med / USEC 14,000 5067 Seasmile 62,340 2013 g’less 21.5 93 + 6.2 Cosco Jul 8-11 mos FE / NZ /Aus (ext) net 16,950 LARGE AND VERY LARGE 6882 Cape Chronos 79,000 2015 g’less 22.5 93.7 ONE Jul 70-90 days Asia / West Coast SA (ext) 20,000 7471 Baltic Bridge 93,542 2005 g’less 25.8 268 + 10 CMA CGM Jul 8-12 mos Far East / US Gulf (ext) 18,500 8714 Conti Makalu 101.898 2004 g’less 25.6 248.8 CMA CGM Jul 70-100 days transpacific 15,900 BULK CARRIER (PERIOD) dwt Name Built Charterer Delivery Period Rate ($) CAPESIZE 179,481 Duhallow 2016 Pacific Bulk Jingtang 24.-25.07. 6-9 mos, redelivery worldwide 24.500 170.726 Kyla Fortune 2001 Bunge Dangjin 15.-21.07. 11-13 mos, redelivery worldwide 90% 5TC avg PANAMAX / KAMSARMAX 81,839 Nord Pollux 2016 Swiss Marine China /Japan / Korea 22.07., ex dry dock 11-13 mos, redelivery worldwide 14,000 81,450 Lyric Sun 2011 Norden Hong Kong 13.-14.07. 4-6 mos, redelivery worldwide 13,250 SUPRAMAX / HANDY 63,463 Pacific Seagull 2016 Cargill Zhanjiang 05.-08.07. 6-9 mos, redelivery worldwide 13,350 62,982 Asia Rugby IV 2014 Oldendorff Manila prompt 4-6 mos, redelivery worldwide 12,200 Charter deals July / all information without guarantee 10 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 8

Märkte | Markets Orders & Sales New Orders Container Activity at the containership new building market decreased. Only two orders became public during the reporting period. SITC ordered two 2,400 TEU vessels with Jiangsu Yangzijiang for 29 mill $ each, delivery scheduled in autumn 2020. The second order was placed by Nissen Kaiun. Hyundai Mipo will build four 1,800 TEU vessels (delivery 2019). Two units were fixed to KMTC on 10 years’ time charters at 12,000 $/day. Secondhand Sales Container The market for further trading container vessels was less active compared to the previous reporting period. In total, seven post-panamaxes and thirteen feeder vessels changed hands. Navios picked up the 9,954 TEU quartet Athos, Asklipios, Athenian and Aristomenis for a price of 52,5 mill. $ each. The sale includes a Hapag-Lloyd time charter until March 2019 at 26,630 $/day. In the smaller segment, the transaction of »Wellington Strait« and the »Winchester Strait« to Milaha, which we reported on in April, failed. The two 1,740 TEU vessels were purchased by MPC Container Ships for 14 mill. $ each. Demolition Sales The world market price for iron ore oscillates around 63 $/t. After a setback during February and March, the price is moving sideways. Recycling activity remained low. In the Indian sub-continent, the monsoon slows productivity down. No new scrap candidates entered the market. Jan Göldner for such vessels: the transpacific. Due to lower-than-expected trade growth and depressed freight rates, container lines have announced the closure of three Far East/US West Coast services within three weeks. Plenty of ships are likely to join the idle fleet over the coming weeks, undermining employment opportunities for all others. Against this background, fixing levels showed a material decline in some cases already, with CMA CGM hiring Hyundai 8000 type »Conti Makalu« (8,189TEU) for a short flexible period at 15,900 $/day which is over 2,500 $ less than what a sister vessel fixed some weeks earlier. Modern 7,000 TEU wide-beams did not remain unfazed by the growing imbalance in the larger size sector, too, as illustrated by the short-term extension of the 2015-built 6,882 TEU »Cape Chronos« by Ocean Network Express at 20,000 $/day – down from mid-20,000’s during the peak three months ago. The conventional panamax segment had to make sacrifices as well. Rate levels only saw moderate adjustments down to high 12,000’s/low 13,000’s $/day for baby panamaxes and to 13,500-14,000 $/day for maxi-panamaxes of ca. 5,000 TEU capacity. A few services operated with panamaxes have recently been phased out but on the other hand there is still enough fresh demand for vessels to avoid a major build-up of unfixed tonnage. Gradual rate declines were also registered for the handy/feeder classes below 3,000 TEU. Gearless 2,700/2,800 TEU ships – arguably one of the strongest segments since last year – were seen fixing at levels below 12,000 $/day east of Suez for the first time after a few more spot vessels emerged on the scene. By contrast, rates for geared 2,500 TEU vessels held up at levels above 12,000 $/day – at least in the Atlantic where operators are apparently faced with a shortage of vessels. Activity in the 1,700 TEU and smaller feeder classes lost momentum as well, with lower benchmarks only emerging slowly, though, due to limited activity. One gearless Wenchong 1700 TEU ship agreed just 9,500 $/day in Asia while a geared unit still achieved 10,500 $/day which was basically in line with last done. For vessels of 1,100 TEU and smaller, the market turned very quiet both in Europe and the Mediterranean and in Asia. Still, rate levels seem relatively robust, with a CV1100 fixing a short flexible period at 8,300 $/day in the Mediterranean while 700 TEU tonnage got fixed at fairly stable levels of 5,450 $/ day for medium period duration in Asia. Dry bulk market trending firmer By comparison, the dry bulk spot market continued to push higher defying seasonal patterns, with the BDI up almost 21% month-on-month. The increase was driven mainly by capesize tonnage which benefitted from a recovery in iron ore liftings both in the Pacific and ex Brazil over the past months. Tonnage shortages on capes in the North Atlantic led to some cargo stem splitting and thus extra demand for panamax bulkers. This in combination with increased fixing activity in the Atlantic, for example for coal ex Murmansk and Baltic Sea ports to the ARA range or the Mediterranean, served to ratchet up panamax rates as well. Smaller geared bulkers were left behind, despite positive signals in some areas such as the Black Sea where the new grain harvest is coming up for export. Average rates for supramaxes and handysize bulkers from time charter trip business declined by 6.0 and 5.0%, respectively, since mid-June. n COMPASS CONTAINER SHIP T/C MARKET 550 500 450 400 20.02.18 Month on Month 522 - 2.3 % CONTAINER FREIGHT MARKET WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,663 $/FEU + 3.9 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,631 $/FEU + 27.2 % DRY CARGO / BULK TANKERS Average rates spot/up to 4 weeks validity WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry Baltic Dry Index 1657 + 20.7 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 23.827 + 41.3 % Panamax 4TC average 12,307 + 7.9 % Supramax 6TC average 11,155 - 6.0 % Handysize 6TC average 8,218 - 4.9 % Forward / ffa front month Feb ($/day) Capesize 180k 20,240 + 24.8 % Panamax 11,940 + 4.5 % MPP July ‘17 $ 6,265 TMI Toepfer's Multipurpose Index Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 714 - 3.9 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 494 - 2.4 % SHORTSEA / COASTER 19.07.18 July ‘18 $ 7,216 The index is based on a 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6-12 months TC and represents the monthly assessment from operators, owners and brokers. Norbroker 3, dwt earnings est. 2,550 €/d - 3.8 % HC Shortsea Index 16.49 - 2.8 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 600 - 9.2 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Data per 19.07.2018, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 8 11

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