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HANSA 08-2017

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Märkte | Markets

Märkte | Markets Market steady despite summer lull Container ship charter rates stabilising, led by a rebound in fixing of large vessels. Trade growth maintained. By Michael Hollmann July/August has never been an exciting period in container ship chartering as staff thins out due to summer holidays. Over the years, rate levels often weakened considerably between mid-June and early August. This year conditions have been more stable so far: The New ConTex, that covers the charter market for the most liquid segments from handy to panamax, is down by less than 2.0 % over the past four weeks and even remained steady during the 29th calendar week. In our previous issue, the ConTex was showing a more significant decline of 4.7%. The more benign trend coincided with a slight drop in overall idle container ships capacity down to circa 515,500 TEU (2.5 % of global TEU capacity), as per Alphaliner’s latest idle count. There have been further improvements in the very large gearless sector which had seen rates beaten down to around 10,000 $/day in June. The bargain levels that were suddenly available saw various operators return to the market and snap up ships, causing another tightening in tonnage supply and pushing rates up again by several thousand dollars. Two Greek-owned 10,000 TEU units (»Asklipios« and »Aristomenis«) lifted the benchmark in this sector to 18,500 $/ day in flexible periods up to one year with Zim – 4,000 $ higher than what a sister ship achieved in June. The 8,500TEU segments also recorded an increase, with the fixture of the 2011-built 8,586 TEU »Gulf Bridge« at 14,500 $/day to Maersk for 2–6 months period in the trade between Asia and West Coast Central America. According to Alphaliner, only three units were available for charter in the 7,500–10,000 TEU segment at short notice by the middle of July, so expectations of further rises in charter rates in the next round of fixtures seem reasonable. The traditional »post-panamax« sector of 5,300-7,500 TEU recorded a steady flow of period fixtures, with spot availability down to three units as well, according to Alphaliner. Tramp owners proved unable to secure meaningful rate improvements, with vessels fixing in a range between 9,500 $/ day to 14,500 $/day for the very modern designs of circa 7,000 TEU capacity. Trade growth on the large headhaul east-west routes (Far East, transpacific, transatlantic) continues to be quite vibrant at low-to-mid or mid-to-upper single-digit percentage growth in the first five months, based on latest available figures. It’s not like in the old days of the early mid-2000’s but respectable nonetheless. According to the RWI-ISL container handling index, the growth momentum carried over into June while some big ocean freight forwards (K+N, Panalpina) TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) FEEDER / HANDY 966 Contship Max 11500 2006 geared 17.4 43 CMA CGM July 3–10 m Mediterranean (ext) 6000 1036 Conmar Avenue 13200 2012 gʹless 18.5 36 CMA CGM July 8–12 m Cont / Baltic trade (ext) 7200 1102 Toronto Trader 13064 2016 geared 18.0 CFS July 3–6 m Caribbean 900 1118 Vega Sachsen 13760 2008 geared 19.5 41 CMA CGM July 3–6 m Caribbean (ext) 6500 1118 Max Crusader 13760 2009 geared 19.6 39.3 Yang Ming Line July 40–90 d Southeast Asia 5600 1338 Bomar Regent 17108 2007 geared 20.0 46.8 + 3 Maersk July 2–7 w Mediterranean trade 6500 1696 Pinara 23400 2004 geared 18.5 53 + 3.5 Melfi July 3–4 m Med-Cuba trade (ext) 7250 1730 Nordviolet 23800 2015 geared 18.5 Seaconsortium July 12–16 d Intra-Asia 9000 1736 Acrux N. 23295 2010 geared 20.7 75 + 3.5 MCC / Maersk July 2–6 m Intra-Asia 7000 1740 Hansa Rendsburg 23631 2000 geared 20.5 58 + 3.5 CMA CGM July 4–7 m Mediterranean 7000 1740 Ornella 21762 2012 geared 19.7 Evergreen July 2–3 m Intra-Asia (ext) 8500 1924 Delphis Riga 24750 2017 g›less 18.0 39.2 Cosco July 30–70 d Mediterranean trade 10250 SUB-PANAMAX 2546 Anna S. 34035 2008 geared 22.0 88 + 4.5 CMA CGM July 8–10 m P. Gulf / Indian Ocean 8250 2556 Rio Thelon 34315 2004 geared 21.5 81 CMA CGM July 7–11 m Europe / Caribs (ext) 9000 2664 Seoul Trader 34528 2009 geared 21.5 PIL July 12–20 d Intra-Asia 9250 2741 Cape Moreton 37880 2005 gʹless 22.0 85 + 4.5 Heung-A July 4–6 m Intra-Asia 9000 3091 Lutetia 41800 2005 geared 22.0 97.5 + 4.5 CMA CGM July 2–3 m US Gulf / ECSA (ext) 8000 3398 Stadt Koeln 44145 2007 gʹless 22.4 106 CMA CGM July 8–12 m (US Gulf tr. incl. positioning) 8200 3534 TRF Partici 42000 2010 gʹless 23.5 Maersk July 10-20 days North Europe 9000 TRADITIONAL PANAMAX AND WIDEBEAM 4250 Elizabeth S. 52000 2009 gʹless 24.5 Hamburg Süd July 2–3 m USEC / WCSA (ext) 8000 4253 Seaspan Felixstowe 50790 2002 gʹless 23.3 140 Maersk July 6–10 d Mediterranean trip 7750 4578 OOCL Dalian 50600 2009 gʹless 24.0 133 KMTC July 4–6 m Intra-Asia 6900 4957 Hammonia Toscana 58000 2013 gʹless 21.7 107 Cosco Aug 3–4 m FE / South Africa (ext) 10000 5089 Memphis 68618 2008 gʹless 22.9 138 CMA CGM Aug 3–7 m Far East / USEC 7250 5301 Barbara 65550 2010 gʹless 25.0 NYK July 45–100 d transatlantic trade 9900 LARGE AND VERY LARGE 5551 Rio Blackwater 68142 2001 gʹless 25.0 210 Hapag-Lloyd July 6–10 m Med / Caribs (ext) 9500 5990 E.R. Sweden 68176 2002 gʹless 26.1 191 NYK July 6–9 m Far East / India 10250 6541 Puelo 81099 2006 gʹless 22.0 137 + 8 Maersk Aug 8–18 m Asia / WCNA (rate esc.) 10600 6882 Cape Pioneer 102517 2017 gʹless 22.5 101.2 NYK Aug 5–8 m ex yard southeast Asia 14500 8586 Gulf Bridge 101310 2011 gʹless 25.2 247 Maersk July 2–6 m Asia / WC Central Amer. 14500 9954 Aristomenis 118712 2011 gʹless 25.7 Zim July 8–10 m FE / USEC 18500 Charter deals / all information without guarantee 12 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 154. Jahrgang – 2017 – Nr. 8

Märkte | Markets Orders & Sales New Orders Container As in previous months activity at the new building market stayed low. However, rumours of contracted vessels are circulated. SITC is said to have agreed with Dae Sun upon the construction of two plus two optional feeder vessels of approximately 1,100 TEU. Supposedly, contracts have already been signed a few months ago. The price is hawked around to be below 19 mill. $ per vessel. Furthermore, Lomar is said to have ordered three feeder ships having a size of about 1,800 TEU at Jiangsu Yangzijiang. Nevertheless, in the likely case of conformation these orders would just be a drop in the bucket and thus would not affect the recovery process negatively. Secondhand Sales Container Bustle at the secondhand market remained on a similar level as in the previous reporting period. The ratio of transacted former post-panamax vessels was remarkably high. Most deals involved attached charter contracts or bareboat leasing schemes. Thus, prices can only partly serve as benchmarks. Demolition Sales The world price for iron ore firmed in July. This was reflected in increasing recycling activity. In total we counted nine container vessels sold for scrap. Nevertheless, “tonnage outflow” is still clearly smaller than it used to be in the first quarter of 2017. Andreas Mietzner COMPASS CONTAINER SHIP T/C MARKET 400 360 320 20.07.17 21.02.17 280 estimated the growth in global loaded container traffc all over at +4% during the first half. One might therefore conclude that charter tonnage demand from the liner operators should remain strong at least in the short run until the cargo low season kicks in in the fourth quarter. However, carriers continue to take delivery of ultra-large newbuildings which satisfy some of their growth requirements. Also, the benefits of consolidation following the ramp-up of the new liner alliance networks is likely to unleash greater slot effciencies. Meanwhile, the market segments from panamax down to feeder class, continue to show mixed fortunes. The key facts are that panamax hire rates remain desperately low after breaching through the 7,000 $ per day-barrier on the way down, with over 30 baby panamax units (4,250 TEU) in spot position or prompt two weeks forward only in Asia. 3,500 TEU class and gearless 2,700 TEU, by contrast, keep enjoying good demand, allowing them to maintain rates at circa 8,000 and up to 9,000 $/day in Asia. 1,700 TEU-type vessels see stable rate levels between high 6,000’s and mid 7,000’s $/day for standard designs. The feeder vessel sectors below 1,200 TEU continue to show a patchy performance, with rate levels between mid 4,000’s $/day for 700 TEU ships and up to 9,000 $ for advanced 1,100 TEU designs in the Caribbean. Fixing activity keeps taking place, but at muted levels, and the key challenge for owners is secure cover and to avoid idle times that drag average earnings down. Fleet utilisation did improve a bit but that is nothing to write home about, as close to 60 units under 1,000 TEU remain idle worldwide. The challenge for owners is to find the right trade for their ships, as Alphaliner pointed out. M Month on Month 381 -1.8 % CONTAINER FREIGHT MARKET WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,705 $/FEU + 3.2 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,242 $/FEU + 7.0 % DRY CARGO / BULK Average rates spot/up to 4 weeks validity WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry Baltic Dry Index 964 + 12.7 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 8,774 + 15.0 % Panamax 4TC average 10,093 + 1.8 % Supramax 6TC average 9,187 + 10.3 % Handysize 6TC average 7,288 + 11.6 % Forward / ffa front month August ($/day) Capesize 180k 11,810 + 14.0 % Panamax 9,910 + 1.4 % MPP MPP pains continue, but more project business on the horizon The cautious recovery in earnings levels and charter hire rates for multipurpose heavylift ships has stalled again, with period rate assessments for major vessel types moving sideways or a bit lower over the past weeks. Hamburg broker Toepfer Transport’s index (TMI) for 12,500 dwt F class vessels remained flat in July at 6,265 $/day, following 4 months of steady slight increases. London shipbroker Clarksons Platou even reduced its assessment of 12 month hire rates for geared 17,000 dwt and 12,000 dwt types to 7,750 and 6,500 $/day, respectively. This is down from 8,000 and 6,700 $/day back in May. As far as E- and F-class vessels with up to 360 t combined lifting capacity are concerned, charter tonnage availability has reportedly tightened following a resurgence of period fixtures over the last weeks and months. As far as spot cargoes are concerned the market looks »pretty empty«, as one German agent told HANSA. Enquiries and bookings eased off again since May, especially in Europe, the manager said. However, latest surveys from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and British oil and gas industry consultant Wood Mackenzie offer some hope of growing project cargo liftings for upstream oil and gas projects over the coming year. In its world energy investment report, the IEA pointed to growing capital spending in the US shale oil sector while Wood Mackenzie forecast that final investment decision for new projects in oil and gas worldwide may double to 25 this year. With its requirements for steel and plant engineering equipment, the energy sector represents one of the largest customer segments for project and heavylift carriers. M .400 .200 .000 .800 .600 .400 .200 .000 .800 July ´16 $ 6,778 The index is based on a 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6-12 months TC and represents the monthly assessment from operators, owners and brokers. TANKERS TMI Toepfer's Multipurpose Index Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 642 - 6.7 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 545 + 1.5 % SHORTSEA / COASTER July ´17 $ 6,265 Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 2,150 €/d - 6.5 % HC Shortsea Index 14.99 - 1.1 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 575 + 0.5 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Data per 20.07.2017, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal – 154. Jahrgang – 2017 – Nr. 8 13

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