MÄRKTE | MARKETS
MÄRKTE | MARKETS Container market going red hot Freight rates continue firming week after week despite new service launches on main trades. By Michael Hollmann Overbooked vessels, port congestion, late arrivals – operations and capacity in liner shipping today are almost as strained as they were back in 2021 and early 2022. No one thought the market could be disrupted in the same way ever again as during Corona. Yet, indicators are pointing heavily in that direction. Average spot freight rates measured by the Shanghai index SCFI are back to around 3.400 points from their long-term average of 1.000, the pandemic peak reached in 2021 was over 5.000. There is still some way to go, but if the recent pace of increase is maintained, it is not impossible for rates to reach their previous peak. Danish analysts Sea-Intelligence have already warned that Far East-Europe westbound rates could breach ,000 per FEU in the coming weeks for some port pairs, surpassing pandemic peak rates at least for a brief period. As this issue of HANSA goes to press, market sources are quoting carrier rates of 8,000–9,000 $/FEU from Chinese main ports to North Europe. However, further tariff hikes (GRI) and peak season surcharges are scheduled for 1 July and the mood in the market is that prices will harden further. No end to Middle East conflict in sight An estimated loss of 11 % of fleet productivity (source: Clarksons) due to longer trading routes because of service diversions away from the Red Sea is just too much for world trade to cope with. Newbuilding deliveries from a bloated orderbook equivalent of 20 % of today’s fleet alleviate some of the pain, it doesn’t make the pain go away, though. Don’t forget: Trade volumes are also increasing at a faster pace again this year after two flat years. Everyone agrees that the current boom is only due to the Red Sea disruption, but the more difficult question is: How long will it last? The situation in Gaza, Israel and the surrounding region is so volatile and erratic that it’s anybody’s guess. Under purely operational aspects, diversions around the Cape of Good Hope will continue at least until the »Golden Week« in early October which marks the end of the traditional peak season in container shipping. This is usually the time when liner operations drop to a slower pace, through blank sailings often followed by service rearrangements and increased dry-dockings of vessels. Changing back from Cape of Good Hope to Suez before that could spawn even greater chaos for port and shipping operations. On the all-important Far East/Europe route, average weekly sailing capacity (including extra/one-off loaders) has kept falling since April partly due to service restructurings, but probably more so because of growing port congestion, delays and prolonged round-trip times for ships. The launch of three new peak season services by Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and CMA CGM – mostly operated with smaller tonnage – will see an increase again in July. Market research firm Linerlytica estimates the average weekly slot supply to rise above 300,000 TEU for the first time this year, but it would still remain well short of last year’s 320,000 TEU. Some cargoes getting converted to breakbulk Although this will benefit European importers to some extent, the increase is not necessarily good news for shippers in other parts of the world because carriers are simply redeploying tonnage from other regions. Thus, the shortage of capacity in other VIEWPOINT More newbuilding projects planned German shipowner Harren Group is concentrating more tonnage and chartering resources within the JSI Alliance (Jumbo Shipping, SAL, Intermarine). After the purchase of two F-class units from Krey Schiffahrt, the company is discussing two more newbuilding projects with shipyards in Asia, as CEO Martin Harren reveals. Harren Group has recently consolidated its dry bulk chartering activities under the »Intermarine« brand, one of its multipurpose/ heavy-lift carriers (beside SAL). Why bundling such a wide range of tonnage? Martin Harren: We had some homework to do in rearranging and streamlining our chartering activities. Integration of our bulk vessels under Intermarine allows us to exploit synergies and do away with silos and double structures in our organisation. It is a lot more efficient for us and it also benefits our clients in the dry cargo and projects sectors. They get a wider spectrum of tonnage for all kinds of cargoes. It also gives them more choice for specific commodities and cargoes such as rotor blades for wind turbines that can safely and efficiently carried by multipurpose heavy-lift vessels or by bulk carriers. We now offer all these possibilities for bulk, breakbulk and heavy loads within one commercial set-up and under a single position list covering mpp ships, deck-carriers and bulk carriers, all joined up under the JSI Alliance made up of Jumbo Shipping and our group companies SAL and Intermarine. The commercial teams worldwide involve more than 200 people. Martin Harren – CEO Harren Group If you look at the split of the JSI fleet, the vast majority of ships is put up by SAL and Intermarine. Is Jumbo going to become redundant? Harren: Definitely not. Jumbo makes an absolutely essential contribution. It’s not all © HANSA 10 HANSA – International Maritime Journal 07 | 2024
1250 1000 750 30.11.23 500 ConTex 20.06.24 June '23 14,421 $ TMI – Toepfer's Multipurpose Index June '24 12,639 $
