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HANSA 07-2022

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RoLo-Neubau · ISF-Tagung · Stena Bulk · Abwasser · Bergung · Schlepper-Wettbewerb · Schiffsmakler-BBQ · Schifffahrtsessen 2022 · 130 Jahre Hurtigruten · Louis Dreyfus

MÄRKTE | MARKETS

MÄRKTE | MARKETS Seatrade outlook marred by recession fears The big boost to shipping following the gradual lifting of Covid restrictions in China has not materialized yet. Latest economic data raises doubts about the mid-term outlook. By Michael Hollmann It should be peak season for container and dry cargo shipping with rates rising across the board, however the opposite is true. Most indicators in our market compass tracing freight rates and vessel earnings month-on-month are down, some of them very heavily. Analysts focusing on global trade are striking a more cautious tone lately amid growing signs that inflation has started impacting consumer and industrial demand in a negative way. Container import demand in North America and Europe is not bouncing back as quickly as forecast by many although, granted, export activity in China is still hampered by varying degrees of containment measures across the country. A survey by freight booking platform Freightos among small and medium-sized business in the US showed that two thirds of them are experiencing a decrease in sales. Most of them attribute the dip to consumer price inflation. Even major retailers like Walmart and Target are suddenly reported as carrying too much inventory of certain durable consumer goods like furniture and electronics. In Germany, consumer sentiment already fell from a cliff in April. Although the fall was arrested during May, indicators by research institute GfK remain stuck far below levels this time last year. Industrial output shrinking As this issue of HANSA goes to print, official purchasing manager indices for the Eurozone and for the US point to a sharp slowdown in economic activity in both regions during June. Of note, the sub-indices for manufacturing output for both have dipped below the »growth« threshold of 50 points, suggesting that factory output is shrinking. The slowdown in the import powerhouses of global container shipping is a worrying sign for carriers and shipowners who are gradually pushing the orderbook towards 30 % of today’s fleet capacity. Quite staggering … The development of spot freight rates for containers in recent weeks tallies with the deterioration in economic data. After briefly stabilising in the middle of May rates for liftings from the Far East to North Europe and to the US continued drifting lower in June. However, rates for shipments from China to the Middle East and to South America strengthened. Productivity bye-bye … Levels in the transatlantic westbound trade from Europe to the US East Coast remained stable at very high levels amid reports of continued capacity shortages and despite the redeployment of some vessels from Russian Baltic trades to the transatlantic. Shipping capacity in the Atlantic seems to be restrained by port congestion a lot more right now than in the Pacific, partly driven by a shift of import volumes from West coast ports to East coast ports. Lengthening vessel queues were reported at Savannah and New York/New Jersey and in North Europe mainly at Hamburg and to some extent at Bremerhaven. VIEWPOINT Congestion and EEXI to drive tonnage demand Despite much doom and gloom in the world economy, charter container ships remain few and far between. There are no signs of a downturn in chartering as more ships will be needed to make up for inefficiencies and speed reductions, says Thomas Kolb, a senior broker with Martini Chartering focusing on competitive business. The orderbook for container ships is now at 27 % of existing capacity – isn’t it madness? Thomas Kolb: No doubt, the present order book is huge. However from a historical point of view 27 % isn‘t that much compared to 2007 when the ratio was about 65 %. Also the amount of capacity ordered by non-operating/tramp owners »on spec« now is much less at about 14 % of total capacity on order. Furthermore, transport chain disruptions, port congestion and forthcoming emission regulations with ensuing service speed reductions will likely result in additional tonnage demand by shipping lines – maybe a lot more than people expect today. On the other hand, the ordering spree might still continue if market fundamentals remain unchange… Zero covid in China, port congestion, war, inflation … Market stability seems a long way off. What are your expectations for the second half of the year? Kolb: During the past two years, market instability has led to increasing demand in a way which no one could foresee. This Thomas Kolb Senior Broker Martini Chartering © Martine Chartering 10 HANSA – International Maritime Journal 07 | 2022

Orders & Sales – Container Ships New Orders – Various newbuilding orders have become known in recent weeks. For example, shipowner Navios from Angeliki Frangou has ordered (2+2) 7,700 TEU vessels in Korea – the first in the history of the company with LNG dual-fuel propulsion. Hapag-Lloyd‘s alliance partner ONE ordered ten 13,700 TEU vessels in Japan and South Korea, also for delivery from 2025 on. MSC is the charterer of 4 x 23,000 TEU ordered by financial houses, according to broker reports. Meanwhile, rival CMA CGM is breaking new ground (as Maersk did previously), ordering six 15,000 TEU freighters with methanol dual-fuel propulsion. All in all 16 newbuildings were contracted by the French, including 23,000 TEU and 7,900 TEU units. Secondhand Sales – There is still a continuous movement on the second-hand market despite the high price level. In addition to the usual candidates, the reefer carrier Seatrade recently attracted attention when it took over four 1,800 TEU ships as part of a resale. Delivery is planned from 2023. MSC is taking delivery of nine more Postpanamax freighters for a total of around ###COLUMNCONTENT###.5 billion. Demolition Sales – Still no demo news Given the worsening demand fundamen tals, fleet utilisation and high freight rates are likely depending more than ever on inefficiencies and productivity issues – some of them due to the pandemic (port congestion), some due to stricter environmental regulation. Brokers on the chartering side expect a notable increase in tonnage demand due to speed reductions forced by EEXI / C II regulation, as highlighted in our VIEWPOINT co - lumn. Also, sentiment among liner ope - rators has not been shaken so far, not even among the new »unconventional« players who rely on smaller, less cost-efficient vessels. Freight forwarder Allseas has just spun off its own shipping line with six chartered vessels. In Germany, newcomer Tailwind Shipping Lines/Lidl is rumoured to be making ma ssive strides in setting up its own operation in the Asia/Europe trades and perhaps elsewhere, too. Container ship t / c market 4000 3500 3000 2500 26.01.22 MÄRKTE | MARKETS COMPASS ConTex 24.06.22 Month on Month 3,300 +5.7 % Container freight market WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles Dry cargo / Bulk Baltic Dry Index Time charter averages / spot: $ /d Capesize 5TC average Panamax 5TC average (82k) Supramax 10TC average (58k) Handysize 7TC average (38k) 9,598 $ /FEU 7,952 $ /FEU Forward / ffa front month (July 22): $ /d Capesize 180k Panamax 82k MPP 2,354 20,061 24,592 27,123 24,096 23,800 23,390 TMI – Toepfer's Multipurpose Index - 2.0 % - 8.6 % –24.7 % –39.3 % –15.1 % –13.0 % –19.1 % –34.1 % –18.7 % June '22 22,760 $ is likely to prevail for some more time, especially considering the fact that much of the present charter fleet is committed while shipping lines are running very profitable services. There is hardly any reason why the container chartering market should change considerably during the next months. Demand remains decent while some of those lines, that had been reluctant to charter, are active in purchasing vessels instead. As a result, charter tonnage availability is further diminished. How many box ships are left to fix this year? How acute is the lack of tonnage? Kolb: Looking at present numbers it is obvious that container ship supply will remain very limited during the next 6 months. Our total count of available vessels six months ahead is down about 67 % compared to the same time last year. Especially ships of 2,000 TEU and bigger will remain hard to get by. Newcomers/niche carriers have gained a greater market share. Will they remain part of the game or fade away if things »normalise«? Kolb: The newly established container shipping lines are keeping the market active. Seeing how they charter in tonnage for longer periods and how they add employees and office space, many of them expect to remain in the game for a long time to come. For shipowners, shippers and other stakeholders in the liner shipping market this is a very positive development after many years of consolidation and a consequential reduction in the number of carriers. Interview: Michael Hollmann Tankers Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index Shortsea / Coaster Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. € HC Shortsea Index BMTI/EUSSIX Inter-Black Sea ($/t) Bunkers June '21 10,285 $ 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6–12 months TC VLSFO 0.5 Rotterdam $ /t MGO Rotterdam $ /t Forward / Swap price Q3/22 VLSFO 0.5 Rotterdam $ /t 1,214 1,732 4,200 33.86 54.25 865 1,315 772 + 8.5 % + 16.2 % - 10.6 % - 0.5 % - 20.1 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; BMTI/EUSSIX: 3,000 t Odessa to Sea of Marmara +4.0 % +18.7 % +5.0 % Data per 23.06.2022, month-on-month HANSA – International Maritime Journal 07 | 2022 11

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