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HANSA 05-2018

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Schifffahrt | Shipping

Schifffahrt | Shipping Lessening threats for the mpp market? Economical and political framework conditions for the global multipurpose shipping markets are improving, analyst Susan Oatway from consultancy Drewry thinks. Talking to HANSA, she explains her assessment. By Michael Meyer Mpp shipping has started in 2018 on a confident footing and is forecast to recover further on rising demand, contracting vessel supply and lessening threats from competing sectors, Drewry’s latest MPP Shipping Annual Review and Forecast states. Comprising both breakbulk and project cargo sectors, the market has struggled over the last few years but conditions are now ripe for recovery, it is said, explained with the fact that dry cargo demand is growing, with a number of drivers reporting improving conditions, whilst the mpp fleet is contracting as older, less heavy lift capable tonnage is weeded out. »It is our belief that the market has finally turned that corner,« Oatway says. Although rate rises are never stratospheric in this sector, she believes a steady growth of 2-3% per year is possible. 2017 saw a decline of 2% in demand, for this and the next year she expects a growth of 0.5 to 1% whereas the fleet would shrink further. The »lessening threat« refers to her belief that as the container and bulk markets improve, there will be slightly less pressure on the breakbulk sector, because container lines will stick to more »traditional« containerised cargo and the bulkers will have more major bulk demand. However, several container and bulk operator already confirmed to stay. Another aspect: The Baltic Dry Index went down again recently to around 950 points. And, China recently announced tariff on soybeans pose a significant threat for bulk operators. Nonetheless, Oatway keeps her confidence: »Although the BDI has fallen further, expectations are that the market will improve over 2018 and into 2019. Our view is based on the longer term prospects.« For Drewry, drivers for growing dry cargo demand are global GDP and trade in goods & services, PMI, oil prices and general commodity demand like steel. But there are still concerns in her team, they might impact the outlook over the medium term. The first of these is the imposition of tariffs on US steel imports but Drewry has concluded that the impact will be limited. The 45 mill. t of US import steel Seehafen Brake Logistik in jeder Dimension Besuchen Sie uns! Breakbulk Europe 2018 Halle 4, Stand 309 www.jmueller.de Wer Komponenten von XS bis XXL umschlagen und bewegen will, ist in Brake richtig. Hier verfügt die J. MÜLLER-Unternehmensgruppe über ausgedehnte Schwerlastflächen und hochmodernes Equipment mit bis zu 210 Tonnen Hebekapazität. Für sicheres, schonendes und zuverlässiges Handling. Großzügige Hallenflächen ermöglichen kajenahe und wetterunabhängige Lagerungen und Verpackungen. J. MÜLLER - Seehafen Brake Neustadtstraße 15 · 26919 Brake Tel. +49 (0) 44 01/914-0 Fax +49 (0) 44 01/914-109 info@jmueller.de 18 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 5

Schifffahrt | Shipping Source: Drewry represents just 8% of global trade. And many countries have been exempted from tariffs, incl. the two largest suppliers Canada and Mexico. Furthermore, alternative trading patterns could lead to an increase in tonne-mile demand, Oatway adds. For her, an important factor with respect to the tonnage side is the IMO deadline to implement a 0.5% sulphur cap on marine fuel from 2020. Being different from the discussions around the ballast water convention, which lead to a delay of the deadline – and which was stated as fleet reduction factor in the last years, not only by Drewry – »there is to be no push back, so owners are looking at three costly measures for compliance«. They can either install scrubbers, use low-sulphur fuel or switch to LNG. Drewry believes that for the older, simpler vessel this could be the impetus needed to send overage vessels for demolition since almost 10% of the fleet is over 30 years old. »There won`t be a push back because the IMO and global opinion are so strong«, she thinks. But she admits, that it is unclear how the owners will react on environmental regulation, »that’s the unknown«. An argument, which Oatway shares for example with SALs Commercial Director Justin Archard (page 30). Using its database, the consultancy observes, that the simple multipurpose fleet with lift below 100 t, has already started to contract at a rate that is affecting the whole fleet. However, Drewry believes that the future is with the project carrier sector, i.e. those vessels with lift greater than 100 t. »Some 80% of all newbuildings over the last five years have heavylift capability, and at least 70% of the orderbook has this capability. The project carrier fleet is growing, but it will be some time before it reverses the decline in the overall multipurpose fleet,« Oatway adds. Being asked about the prospects of bigger mpp vessels with more than 25.000 dwt, she believes »that the simple vessels will definitely contract over the next five years, but all the investment is in project carriers with SWL >100 mts. Most of these vessels are in the 10-20,000 dwt sector but there are a significant number (21% of the PC fleet) in the 20–35,000 dwt sector. However the orderbook for PC is almost exclusivley 10–15,000 dwt. So whilst the PC sector is growing, the percentage of these vessels over 20,000 dwt is likely to fall.« According to the report, the fleet growth 2017–2019 for mpp vessels with SWL 100 t will see a growth of 1%. Not everybody is as confident as Drewry. What e.g. operators think about the market is shown in detail on the following pages. Your premier source for project shipping We operate the world’s only high performance inducement service connecting any port, transporting any cargo. Benefit from our worldwide coverage, knowledge, flexibility, and reliability. Contact us today to experience the unparalleled global service of the world’s most trusted project carrier. www.bbc-chartering.com Visit us at Breakbulk Europe May 29–31, 2018 · Booth #1019 · Bremen HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 5 19

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