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HANSA 05-2017

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Märkte | Markets

Märkte | Markets Tonnage scarcity drives rates higher Fixture levels for tramp vessels down to 2,500 TEU keep pushing up but momentum has somewhat waned since mid-April. Effects of alliance restructuring tapering off now. By Michael Hollmann Sentiment in the container ship market remained bullish during April, with charter rates for larger vessels pushing up vigorously and investor demand for second-hand vessels continuing to be strong. The New ConTex was up 11.5% month-onmonth (20 April) – a considerable jump, though not as steep as during the previous 4-week period (HANSA 04/17). However, larger types which are hardly reflected in the ConTex apart from gearless 3,500 TEU and 4,250 TEU baby panamaxes continued to post substantial gains. By contrary, the feeder and handy segments of the index (1,100 and 1,700 TEU) kept lagging behind in the current rally, their rate levels moved up only modestly into the mid ,000`s and low ,000’s range, respectively. It is the very large and large sectors, where trading liquidity is naturally more limited, that keep setting the pace for the market’s advance. Modern 6,500-7,000 TEU and older 7,500 TEU class ships saw rates rise by several thousand dollars again, illustrated by the fixtures of the 2005-built 7,471 TEU »Conti Savannah« at just below 20,000 $/ day for a medium period to Hapag-Lloyd and the 2013-built high-reefer 6,881 TEU »Kristina« for a longer 11–13 month duration in the transpacific trade to Wan Hai. The number of fixtures has come down but most brokers put this down to a lack of prompt availability after almost two months of brisk fixing activity. Fortnightly idle fleet statistics by researchers Alphaliner confirm that utilization of the cellular fleet kept improving, with the volume of idle tonnage (liner-controlled vessels without service assignment/charter-free tramp vessels) falling to 256 units of 967,260 TEU as per early April. But a lot of this tonnage remains in layup and cannot be activated promptly which means that only a minor share of all these ships can be considered available on spot/ prompt basis. According to Alphaliner, the number of vessels immediately available as per early April was down to just one unit in the »large« 5,300–7,500 TEU segment and to 6 units in the »very large« 7,500-11,000 TEU sector. The latter are mainly 10,000 TEU class ships, previously owned by bankrupt Hanjin and recently sold to Evangelos Marinakis-led Capital Ship Management. Ru- TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) FEEDER / HANDY 704 Contship Box 8200 2008 gʹless 17.0 Hyundai Merchant Marine Apr 2–8 m Intra Asia 4200 966 Hoheriff 11500 2007 geared 18.8 Dole Apr 21–42 days Caribbean 7250 1036 WES Janine 13200 2012 gʹless 18.5 Sea Consortium Apr 1–3 m Cont / Baltic € 6300 1118 Vega Azurit 13760 2008 geared 19.6 Seago Apr 1–4 m Cont / Baltic 5900 1147 Asiatic Neptune 12690 2007 gʹless 19.0 KMTC Apr 4–6 m Intra-Asia 7250 1421 Charlotta B 17822 2009 gʹless 19.3 Hapag-Lloyd Apr 11–13 m North Europe 9250 1705 San Pedro 21737 2014 geared 19.7 Heung-A Apr 4–6 m Intra-Asia (ext) 8500 1732 RHL Audacia 23600 2007 geared 21.0 64 + 6 MCC / Maersk Apr 2–4 weeks Intra-Asia 7000 1740 EM Hydra 23400 2005 geared 19.5 62 + 3 Gold Star Line/ Zim Apr 4–7 m Intra-Asia 7200 1794 Bahamian Express 25937 2010 geared 20.5 60.4 Orient Express Lines Apr 15–20 days South Asia 7200 1900 Pacific Star 26260 1997 geared 19.0 K Line Apr 7 days Far East 6300 1924 Delphis Gdansk 24700 2017 gʹless 18.5 FESCO Apr 6 m Cont / Baltic 10500 SUB-PANAMAX 2450 Arica Bridge 32997 2010 geared 22.2 KMTC May 5–7 m Intra-Asia 9300 2472 Leda Trader 33917 2000 geared 22.0 Sinokor May 4–6 m Intra-Asia (ext) 9300 2500 Nordamelia 35500 2017 geared 19.0 Hamburg Süd May 5–7 m Pacific (relet by Seatrade) 11400 2732 Euro Max 39307 2002 gʹless 21.6 85.5 Bengal Tiger Line May 14–42 days Southeast Asia 9300 2824 Irenes Remedy 39382 2005 gʹless 24.0 Hapag-Lloyd May 5–7 m transatlantic 8850 2824 AS Carinthia 39386 2003 gʹless 24.0 Simatech May 4–7 m Indian Ocean trade (ext) 9500 3388 Natal 43127 2007 gʹless 22.4 Regional Container Lines May 4–6 m Intra-Asia (ext9 9550 3534 Northern Dexterity 42166 2008 gʹless 22.2 Hapag-Lloyd May 70–90 days Intra-Asia 9500 TRADITIONAL PANAMAX AND WIDEBEAM 4132 Duck Hunter 55495 2004 gʹless 24.0 Wan Hai May 40–50 days Far East (ext) 10600 4178 Amalthea 52788 2009 gʹless 24.6 K Line May 1 round voyage FE / SAF (ext) 10000 4398 Corinthiakos 55400 2010 gʹless 25.2 Hapag-Lloyd May 5–7 m Far East / India (ext) 10000 4600 Northern Priority 59186 2009 gʹless 24.0 Mitsui OSK Lines May 2–4 m Intra-Asia 11500 5294 Barbara 65550 2010 gʹless 25.0 181 Maersk Apr 2–3 m transatlantic (ext) 13000 5294 Blandine 65550 2009 gʹless 25.0 181 Cosco May 5 m transatlantic 13000 LARGE AND VERY LARGE 5551 Rio Barrow 68142 2001 gʹless 25.9 198 Hapag-Lloyd May 10–14 m N. Europe / ECSA (ext) 12500 5990 E.R. Denmark 68176 2002 gʹless 26.0 Hapag-Lloyd May 30–40 days N. Europe / China 10000 6492 K Phoenix 80270 2003 gʹless 25.0 225 CMA CGM May 11–14 m Asia / SAF/ WAF 12900 6881 Kristina 80277 2013 gʹless 22.5 Wan Hai May 11–13 m transpac / high reefer 18500 7241 Anton Schulte 90651 2009 gʹless 25.0 220 NYK Line May 10–12 m Far East / India (ext) 15000 7471 Conti Savannah 93542 2005 gʹless 25.8 268 + 10 Hapag-Lloyd May 5–7 m worldwide 19850 Charter deals April / all information without guarantee 14 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 154. Jahrgang – 2017 – Nr. 5

Märkte | Markets mours were popping up that one of these ships may have been committed for short period employment at 30,000 $/day but this could not be confirmed so far. Further fixtures are eagerly awaited to provide clarity over the near-term direction of the market as first doubts are being voiced over the sustainability of the current rally. Yes, market fundamentals have improved due to a stagnation in fleet capacity caused by high demolition levels since mid-2016 and slippage of ULCS newbuilding deliveries this year whereas growth in transportation demand picked up to an estimated 4% in Q1. It is clear, though, that extra tonnage requirements linked to the east-west alliance restructurings play a significant role as well. This factor is harder to ascertain because it very much depends on the liner operators’ network and capacity strategies for this year’s cargo peak season. The basic elements of it are well understood by now: Carriers need extra vessels for contingency and as back-up during the transition from the old to the new alliance schedules to maintain service integrity. Once the port rotations are up and running, they can go back to »normal«, more productive tonnage levels. Impact on alliance reshuffe remains mystery Separating the »true« from the »transient« requirements is pretty much guess work, though. Based on an analysis of published schedules by the alliances and vessel nominations to date, Alphaliner suggests that some 20 units between 4,000 and 7,000 TEU are going to become redundant »once the transition is done and the current overlaps are resolved«. Will these ships – to the extent that they are chartered-in, not owned – be returned to their owners, or will they be cascaded into north/south trades? The latter remain outside the scope of the east-west alliances, so a plethora of options and combinations seem possible. »It will probably take until June or July until we find out to what extent the increases [in rates] were driven by the new alliance start-ups,« as one Hamburg-based shipbroker points out. Meanwhile down in the traditional panamax segment charter rates continued to recover lost ground as well. Since end of March, fixing levels for short periods up to 7 months improved from high ,000’s to well over 10,000 $/day as spot supply of charter units dropped to around a handful. Rates for standard tonnage peaked at 11,500 $/day basis 2–4 months as illustrated by the fixture of the 4,600 TEU »Northern Priority« to Japanese carrier MOL in early April. This level has not been repeated for similar tonnage so far. Only some highspec panamax-max vessels scored higher: the 5,300 TEU »Barbara« and »Blandine« – once developed and launched by Hermann Buss for employment with CSAV on the West Coast South America/Europe route, today controlled by Peter Döhle – set a new benchmark of ,000 per day for short periods in transatlantic services with Maersk and Cosco, respectively. Smaller 4,250 TEU baby-panamax vessels improved to low/mid ,000’s but seemed to be on a sideways trend by the time HANSA went to press. »Although the market feels busy, we are not noticing further gains this week,« commented one broker during week 16 after Easter. Expectations remain a bit firmer for sub-panamax type ships between 2,000 and 3,000 TEU based on very tight availability both in the geared 2,500 TEU and gearless 2,700/2,800 TEU sectors. Although some operators are unable to find suitable tonnage for their positions, rates for gearless 2,700 TEU ships are taking longer than expected to reach the ,000 mark. Rates improved to high ,000’s in the Med and to mid ,000’s in the Far East. If owners don’t manage to push them further up they are at least looking for longer periods given that durations fixed so far are mainly for 6 or 7 months maximum, brokers say. Some believe that geared 2,500 TEU types might overtake their larger sisters in the race to breach the 10,000 $/day from last done levels of 9,300 $/day. A high-spec newbuilding, the geared 2,500 TEU »Nordamelia«, already achieved ,400 in a 5-7 month period with Hamburg Süd, it was reported, while a popular gearless unit (2,500 TEU Artemis) reportedly obtained 10,000 $/day in a longer period with Zim. By comparison, market activity and rate developments in the feeder classes below 2,000 TEU remain uninspiring. Some point out that rate levels have been relatively high anyway over the last year when compared with the bigger classes. Their »unresponsiveness« has been »fully justified by the fact that they were already fully priced in relationship to the larger sizes,« noted Howe Robinson. Short-term indicators were pointing upwards, though, and rate levels for feeder vessels should finally be »dragged up by the general market movement«, the broker forecast. Tonnage demand perked up already in the Med, albeit with limited positive impact on rate levels, while the all-important Asian market remained fairly quiet, especially for 1,000–1,200 TEU vessels. M COMPASS CONTAINER SHIP T/C MARKET 400 20.04.17 360 320 280 22.11.16 Month on Month 399 +17.0 % CONTAINER FREIGHT MARKET WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,546 $/FEU + 0.25 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,358 $/FEU + 0.14 % DRY CARGO / BULK SHORTSEA / COASTER TANKERS Average rates spot/up to 4 weeks validity WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry Baltic Dry Index 1,243 + 3.9 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 14,660 - 13.6 % Panamax 4TC average 12,448 + 32.4 % Supramax 6TC average 10,090 + 2.2 % Handysize 6TC average 8,386 + 9.7 % Forward / ffa front month May ($/day) Capesize 180k 15,120 - 7.8 % Panamax 11,270 + 14.5 % Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 2,600 €/d ± 0 % HC Shortsea Index 16.92 + 2.0 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 606 - 0.3 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 819 + 0.3 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 643 -18.6 % BUNKERS IFO 380 Rotterdam $/t 297 + 10.8 % MGO Rotterdam $/t 467 + 8.4 % Forward / Swap price Q2/17 IFO 380 Rotterdam $/t 284.9 - 3.5 % Data per 20.04.2017, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal – 154. Jahrgang – 2017 – Nr. 5 15

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