MÄRKTE |
MÄRKTE | MARKETSContainer market outlook improving againThe chance of a speedy return to the Red Sea/Suez route has been squashed. Shippers in thecontainer sector are facing another year of tightness in supply. By Michael HollmannGlobal politics has become so erratic that single events fromone day to the next can easily shift the needle for shippingmarkets. Latest developments around US foreign policy and theIsrael/Hamas conflict are deeply unsettling for most of us, yet itseems that shipping from an earnings perspective will be reapingsignificant benefits.As the death toll in Gaza rises and strikes by US forces againstHouthi rebels in Yemen continue, expectations of a return of»mainstream« container line services to the Red Sea/Suez route inthe near future have just evaporated. It seems almost certain rightnow that deviations around the Cape of Good Hope will continueat least until October after the annual peak season in containershipping has ended. Consequently, there has been a change intone among analysts and shipping executives in latest earningsconferences and comments versus a couple of months ago.With oversupply in fleet capacity continuing to be kept incheck by longer trading routes, the prevailing mood now is that2025 will be another strong year, albeit not quite as good as 2024which turned out to be the third-best year for container shippingafter the corona boom years of 2021 and 2022.Spot freight rates based on the Shanghai Index (SCFI) havedropped further by around 20 % over the past weeks weigheddown by heavy losses on transpacific rates. However, at around1,300 index points they are still much higher than at the samepoint in time during the years before 2020. In March 2018 andMarch 2019, the SCFI showed only 730–740 points, respectively,only a bit more than half the level these days. Container rate futureson the International Energy Exchange in Shanghai are alreadytrading at impressive premiums for June and August. Thereis growing confidence that the market has more or less bottomedout, with quotes for loadings from China to North Europe circulatedat well below 2,000 $/FEU, and that April or May at the latestwill see another rallye in freight rates.Similar to last year, the peak season for cargoes for the Xmas/Black Friday shopping season in Europe and North America isexpected to arrive early due to continued prolonged shipping leadtimes because of Cape of Good Hope routings. Also, further developmentson US tariffs and counter-tariffs my encourage morefront-loading if the situation worsens gradually instead of asudden hike during April.Another factor that may have compounded the recent weaknessin freight rates, obscuring the true strength of the market, is thefact that capacity rationalisation after Chinese New Year has beenminimal this year. This is borne out by the fact that the »idle« containership fleet has remained well below 1 % in the first quarter.Spot tonnage in the charter market remained practically nonexistent,underlining the container lines’ confidence in a pendingrebound in the freight market. None of the major carriers likes toVIEWPOINTLack of modern feedersis »the big issue«The Caribbean market is often payingpremium hire rates. Yet, supply of smallergeared vessels for operators is gettingthinner. Florida-based shipbroker GisholtShipping tries hard to break the impasseon new projects, but the threat ofmassive fines for Chinese-built vessels inUS ports makes it tough, as the firm’spresident Hans Laue explains.Gisholt just celebrated its 50 anniversary– congratulations! Was it a good party?Hans Laue: Oh yes, we had about 130guests over, many even from Hamburgwhere we have a lot of friends amongshipowners and brokers. I felt very honoured.Because so many came from overseas,we arranged a second event on a99-year old yacht for a cruise down theintracoastal waterway in Fort Lauderdalewhich is a beautiful area. It was a greatcelebration.These are turbulent times for shippingwith the barrage of protectionist measuresout of Washington. Especially the decisionon possible massive extra fees for Chinesevessels in US ports is looming large…Laue: This is our biggest worry right now!Our clients – charterers in the Caribbean/Central America trades – cannot do withoutsmaller geared tonnage, mostly built inChina. They won’t be able to survive if theyhave to pay a million dollars extra per call.They are relatively small operators withships between 500 and 2,500 TEU.What looks already tough in terms ofcost for a 20,000+ TEU ship, for them itwould be catastrophic. It would not justwipe out several of our clients, ourselveswe might not even be around anymore12 months from now. Hopefully, it won’tget that far.I am spending a lot of time and effortright now trying to get everybody to submitcomments on the proposed fee by theHans Laue – President Gisholt Shipping23 March deadline. Also, many clients andpartners are to appear in person at thehearing in Washington on 24 March togive testimonies which I will be attendingas well. The whole study and presentationthat led up to the proposed fine for Chinesevessels is wrong to begin with. Chinais not purposely trying to undermine USshipbuilding and maritime industries. Itjust seized an opportunity in the marketand we should be grateful they did so forthe sake of world trade.© Gisholt Shipping12 HANSA – International Maritime Journal 04 | 2025
1500125019.09.241000ConTex TMI – Toepfer'sMultipurpose Index20.03.25 March '2412,027 $March '2512,800 $
