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HANSA 03-2021

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Review SMM und Maritime Future Summit · Ballastwater Management Survey 2021 · Tanker-Schifffahrt · Ostsee-Häfen · Port State Control · Shortsea Shipping · Schiffsbanken HCOB & OVB


MÄRKTE | MARKETS A first quarter like no other … Seasonality in dry cargo and container shipping is put on its head, with rates high and firm across the board. By Michael Hollmann Many almost got accustomed to the surprising strength in shipping markets (except tankers) since Q3 last year. Yet latest moves in rates and earnings make you rub your eyes. Halfway through the 14-day festive break for Chinese New Year and the bullish sentiment in container shipping shows little signs of easing. If the latest earnings forecast from Hapag- Lloyd is any guide, container shipping might be in for another record quarter. Normally, Q1 marks a low-point in liner earnings due to the winter slack season. Not this time. Hapag’s executive board anticipates an EBITDA at least 80% higher than in Q4 2020 (1.0 bill. $). Port and terminal congestion especially in North America and Europe creates extra costs for liner operators but these are dwarfed by the continued boost in container loadings at near-record high freights. For tonnage providers, markets are still getting better and better, with charter rates making massive strides again during February. Fixing levels kept improving by thousands of dollars per day for literally all vessel classes as tonnage supply was further diminished. Spot chartering is a thing of the past as idle statistics reveal a complete lack of immediate tonnage availability worldwide. Liner operators are forced to look weeks or even months ahead for lay-can/delivery dates. Perhaps more spectacular than the rise in charter rates was the further lengthening in period durations and the narrowing spread between short-period and long-period rates. Long-term rates are quickly catching up as the share of 2-year fixtures among charter transactions in the 2,000–4,000 TEU segments grows while sub-2,000 TEU feeder tonnage now mostly gets covered at minimum periods of a year. With so many ships disappearing from the market for longer, the supply side of the charter market could remain extremely thin for the whole year. The dry bulk market is baffling market observers no less, with spot time charter earnings in the first seven weeks at multiyear seasonal highs. You have to go back a number of years for average earnings at similar levels at this time of the year: Panamaxes (82,500 dwt) nearly at 23,000 $/day, supras and handysize vessels at more than 15,000 $/day. Several factors are at play, most of all continued high demand for iron ore and for thermal coal in China, prompted by higher-than-normal economic activity during Lunar New Year (travel bans, fewer factory shut-downs) and by freezing weather and elevated power demand. Meanwhile in the Atlantic, a glut of grain cargoes ex US Gulf, East Coast of South America and the Black Sea keeps fuelling demand for panamaxes and smaller geared bulkers, with handies additionally benefiting from a spate of scrap and fertilizer cargoes in Northern Europe and high activity in the Mediterranean. Peak rates for ice-class business Freezing temperatures in the north did their bit to ratchet markets up further. First of all, coal burn for power generation went up considerably in Western Europe despite efforts to phase out coal, as London shipbroker Arrow points out. In France alone it quadrupled in January, in Germany it rose by 10 %. Stockpiles in the ARA region have sunk to 2.2 mill. t, a four-year low. »Cold weather is set to keep coal-fired power generation elevated also in February,« according to Arrow’s re - search desk. VIEWPOINT »Reliability is more important than freight rate« Performance reliability has become more relevant to shippers than the price of freight in today’s capacity squeeze, says Matthias Hansen, Senior Vice President Global Ocean Freight at Geodis. As a freight forwarder, the company went out on a limb to charter tonnage and lease containers itself to create some capacity for clients from Far East to Europe. HANSA: How much longer will the extreme shortages in container shipping last? What’s the outlook for 2021 and beyond? © Geodis Matthias Hansen, Senior Vice President, Geodis Matthias Hansen: Ocean carrier’s capabilities and speed in re-positioning the equipment to where it is needed is part of a solution to clear the container shortage situation. Some have taken strong actions already. We envision a return to normal in the mid/end of the second quarter, just before summer and before the traditional July-August spike. Based on our customers sales forecasts, demand will remain strong until April/ May, even if some importers have decided to postpone some low value cargo orders to better times. The idle fleet remains very low, which means capacity is fully deployed. Much depends on the opening-up of economies and people being more mobile again. Currently the balance between services and goods is very much on purchasing goods, as services cannot be consumed. The expenditure saved on holidays, bars and restaurants is being spent on household furniture, clothes or high-tech equipment. 8 HANSA – International Maritime Journal 03 | 2021

Orders & Sales New Orders Container After quite a long period of restraint, more and more shipowners are finding the courage to order newbuildings. Most recently, Seaspan and the Greek shipowner Marinakis (6 x13,000 TEU) for Capital Maritime & Trading inked orders, in addition to some smaller Asian owners. The Canadian market leader Seaspan was active twice: One order for 2 x 24,000 TEU, including a 18-year charter contract »with a large line«, antoher one for 10 x 15,000 TEU dual fuel units with ZIM charter. Secondhand Sales Marinakis was also active in the second-hand market, buying six 3.752 TEU vessels (built 2007). Also, the tramp owner GSL (7 x 6,000 TEU, seller still unknown) and again MSC made a move. The Swiss are said to take over tonnage from German shipowners Hans Peterson (»Westermoor«), Foroohari (»BF Osprey«, »BF Mahia«) as well as Borealis and Jebsen, among others. Demolition Sales The scrapping market for container ships is currently very flat. »No news« was the latest word from brokers. Prices were last at $ 445 / ldt (Bangladesh), $ 440 (Pakistan), $ 435 (India) and $ 250 (Turkey). MM Secondly, ice and cold temperatures slowed down tonnage movements, providing substantial premiums to ice-class vessels and standard tonnage prepared to take a chance and breach International Navigation Limits/Institute Warranty Limits (INL/IWL) for trips in the North Atlantic. Hence the market saw astonishing fixtures such as the 2005-built »Omicron Titina« (76,800 dwt) joining Oldendorff delivery Gibraltar for 2–3 laden legs in the Atlantic at 42,500 $/day. Weather-related delays in Northern Europe, strong grain flows ex Black Sea and improving demand from the steel sector pulled the European short-sea market further up as well. Increased rate ideas by owners are met with little resistance from charterers amid the tonnage squeeze. BMTI’s European Short Sea Index climbed to 24.54 points – up 6.6 % year-on-year. The benchmark rate for 3,000 t cargoes from the Baltic States to ARAG reached 28.13 €/t, against 25.54 €/t a year ago. n Container ship t / c market MÄRKTE | MARKETS COMPASS Month on Month 749 + 6.7 % Container freight market WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles Dry cargo / Bulk Baltic Dry Index Time charter averages / spot: $/d Capesize 5TC average Panamax 5TC average (82k) Supramax 10TC average (58k) Handysize 7TC average (38k) 8,608 $/FEU 4,348 $/FEU Forward / ffa front month (Mar 21): $/d Capesize 180k Panamax 82k MPP 1.770 15,690 22,237 15,849 ) 15,199 k 17,019 k23,649 -5.0 % +4.1 % -3.2 % -38.5 % +50.8 % +27.2 % +26.7 % +9.2 % +79.2 % Some forwarders including Geodis are stepping into the breach, chartering (mpp) vessels for Asia-Europe voyages with containers. This is a complex task for a non-vessel operating carrier. Will there be more forwarder involvement in vessel operations going forward? Hansen: Our main objective is to offer solutions to our existing customers so that they can ship their freight in as timely and economical a way as possible. We are very experienced in chartering multi-purpose ships due to our large and well-established project logistics activities and to our chartering desk. For the leasing of empty equipment GEODIS works closely with several suppliers. We had prior relationships with suppliers due to our project logistics activity and certain assignments that we had completed, converting containers into lodging for the humanitarian aid sector. How are cargo owners responding to the challenges? Will they alter their freight contracting strategy to obtain better rates and performance this year? Hansen: The situation has certainly created a new kind of conversation with customers as well as new mutual commitments from both sides. Being able to anticipate and absorb cargo overflow with some flexibility is creating value in the continuity of the supply chain. The focus on reliable and sustainable supply chains has grown and has become more important than the pure price. Michael Hollmann 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6–12 months TC Tankers Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index Shortsea / Coaster Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. HC Shortsea Index ISTFIX Shortsea Index 602 571 3,700 20.12 700 +20.8 % +17.7 % +5.7 % +0.3 % +0.8 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Bunkers VLSFO 0.5 Rotterdam $/t MGO Rotterdam $/t Forward / Swap price Q2/21 VLSFO 0.5 Rotterdam $/t 485 524 459 +18.3 % +15.4 % +13.9 % Data per 18.02.2021, month-on-month HANSA – International Maritime Journal 03 | 2021 9

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