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HANSA 03-2019

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Märkte | Markets

Märkte | Markets Markets awaiting China rebound The first half of February was tough for container ships and especially for bulk carriers. Although rates have meanwhile started to recover, market sentiment remains cautious The first quarter is usually the weakest period in the dry and the container markets, with February the low-point of the year depending on the exact timing of Chinese New Year. No wonder then that there is so much red-ink across our market compass on the opposite page. The intensity of the rate falls was exceeding expectations, though, especially in the capesize sector. The tailings dam disaster and consequent losses in iron ore shipments ex Brazil coupled with the withdrawal of Chinese chartering demand during the Golden Week melded into a kind of perfect storm for the largest bulkers. Average spot time charter earnings were slashed by more than half, with rates still fragile and softening again at the time of writing. A return of Australian iron ore miners to the market and short waves of tonnage fixing for Brazil cargoes to China was not enough to turn the market around and lift average rates above operating costs again. Brokers cited a persistent lack of cargoes in the North Atlantic and a rise in redeliveries of period vessels onto the market as factors for the prolonged slump. The panamax and handy bulk segments showed more encouraging signs as tonnage demand gathered momentum once more, albeit partly restricted to certain areas. Average time charter earnings for panamaxes were still down by around one fifth compared with end of January but the trend was pointing upwards again, led by resurging demand in the Pacific region. There were growing reports of North Pacific grain business and minerals ex Indonesia and Australia, often for discharge in India, which put rates on the ascent. By contrast, the Atlantic took longer to see any material increase in demand which meant that the gap in earnings showed no signs of narrowing until calendar week 8. Transatlantic trips were rated at just half the level (2,500- 3,500 $/d) reported for transpacific round trips. US soyabean liftings to China are still missing as base cargo for panamaxes in the Atlantic and the outlook remains uncertain. Following the temporary trade truce in December, the volume of U.S. soya beans inspected for export and ready for shipping surged from just around 25,000 t in December to 1.2 mill. t in January. However, time Containerships (Period) TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) Feeder / Handy 704 Atlantic South 8,508 2007 gearless 17.0 24.0 Sea Consortium Feb 3-5 months East Mediterranean 5,200 868 Neuenfelde 11,390 2001 gearless 18.5 37.7 Hapag-Lloyd Feb 6 months North Europe (ext) 6,500 868 Allegro 11,388 2004 gearless 18.0 33.3 Sea Consortium Feb 3 months North Europe €5,400 1042 Talahassee 12,574 2012 gearless 17.0 24.0 Ocean Network Express Feb 4-6 months Intra-Asia (ext) 8,100 1296 AS Floretta 18,278 2007 geared 19.6 45.0 CMA CGM Feb 5-8 months Caribbean (ext) 8,650 1713 AS Sophia 22,314 2007 geared 20.0 62.0 Maersk Feb 2-6 months Intra-Asia (ext) 7,350 1740 Acrux N 23,338 2010 geared 20.0 70.0 Dole Ocean Express Feb 14-15 days US Gulf / Caribs 9,000 1891 Starship Leo 23,927 2013 gearless 18.5 36.0 CMA CGM Feb 3-6 months Intra-Asia 10,250 Sub-Panamax 2478 Strauss 33,900 2005 geared 22.5 86.0 Maersk Feb 3-9 months Med-West Africa (ext) 9,250 2741 Fred 37,938 2007 gearless 21.8 88.0 Wan Hai Lines Feb 4-6 months Intra-Asia (ext) 8,500 2824 AS Carolina 39,155 2006 gearless 23.0 97.0 Italia Marittima Feb 8-12 months Mediterranean 9,300 3752 Spirit of Melbourne 53,176 2007 gearless 22.0 100.0 CMA CGM Mar 4-8 months Med / WCSA (ext) 10,000 Traditional Panamax and Widebeam 4250 Balthasar Schulte 49,856 2012 gearless 24.3 150.0 Maersk Feb 24-36 months worldwide 9,500 / 11,500 4957 Wieland 56,054 2014 gearless 21.7 106.0 KMTC Mar 42 days Intra-Asia (ext) 13,500 5085 Memphis 68,618 2008 gearless 24.3 155.0 Hapag-Lloyd Feb 4-7 months Intra-Asia (ext) 7,150 5466 Wide India 65,165 2015 gearless 21.5 90.9 Hyundai Merchant Marine Mar 60-75 days Intra-Asia (ext) 14,800 Large and very large 5762 E. R. Berlin 67,580 2000 gearless 24.9 191.0 Hapag-Lloyd Mar 11-13 months Tranatlantic (ext) 12,750 8400 Northern Jade 108,106 2005 gearless 25.0 265.0 MSC Feb 12 months Far East 18,000 8643 Seamax Bridgeport 105,376 2003 gearless 25.0 286.0 Cosco Mar 4-6 months Far East 18,750 8643 Seamax Darien 105,386 2003 gearless 25.0 286.0 MSC Mar 11-13 months Far East (ext) 19,300 Bulk carrier (Period) dwt Name Built Charterer Delivery Period Rate ($) Capesize 177,729 Houston 2009 Koch Shipping Qingdao, 17 February retro 14-17 months, redelivery worldwide 10,500 179,329 Dong-A Oknos 2010 Jaldhi Dangjin, prompt 9-11 months, redelivery worldwide 11,000 Panamax / Kamsarmax 77,525 Crystalia 2014 Glencore Qingdao, 21-23 February 14-17 months, redelivery worldwide 10,500 75,403 Maera 2013 Glencore Visakhapatnam, 10 February retro 14-16 months, redelivery worldwide 7,000 (first 45 days)/9,100 Supramax / Handy 56,560 Fanoula 2008 n.a. Cambodia, 27 February-02 March 4-6 months, redelivery worldwide 10,500 37,985 Nordrubicon 2016 White Lake South Brazil, prompt 12-14 months, redelivery Atlantic 12,000 Charter deals February / all information without guarantee 10 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 156. Jahrgang – 2019 – Nr. 3

Märkte | Markets Orders & Sales New Orders Container Atlantic Geneva ordered four 2,400 TEU ships at CSSC Jiangnan and eight 1,100 TEUs at Huangpu Wenchong and CSSC Chengxi. Furthermore, CMA CGM ordered ten 15,000 TEU ships. The order was split amongst Shanghai Waigaoqiao and Pudong Zhongdua (both CSSC). Each vessel will cost around 110 mill. $ and will have 10,000 m3 LNG tanks. Shoei Kisen contracted four 11,000 TEU vessels at Imabari. Secondhand Sales Container Activity continues to stay on a low level. The 9,408 TEU ship »MSC Desiree« was sold by SinOceanic Shipping to Blue Star Holding for 90 mill. $ with a 15-year bareboat charter at 25,700 $/d. In the smaller segments, four transactions were concluded. One transaction included the 1,645 TEU »Alidra« (built 2000). The ship was acquired by Victoria Oceanway for 3,8 mill. $. Demolition Sales Iron ore has rallied almost 40 % since December. A certain proportion of the price increase is due to the dam disaster in Brazil and its threat to global supply. Currently, the price for iron ore oscillates around 88 $/ t. High activity continues to prevail in the demolition market. 13 vessels, representing 35,500 TEU, were sold for scrap. The majority were feeder vessels. The large idle fleet of around 110 vessels (1,000 to 3,000 TEU) definitely helps to increase volumes. In the larger segments, 6078 TEU »Conti Basel« and 4,992 TEU »Zim Virginia« were sold to Bangladeshi buyers at 470 and 6 $/ ldt. Jan Göldner COMPASS Container ship t / c market 550 500 450 400 21.08.18 21.02.19 350 is running up fast for the 1 March deadline and the US and China are not expected to reach an agreement by then, putting a big question mark over the near-term development of soya bean shipments. Shipowners may hope that the new harvest in Brazil will translate into large replacement volume for China over the coming months which would stimulate panamax demand. The problem, though, is that Chinese demand is hard to read at this stage as the fast spreading of African swine fever and falls in the hog population may result in reduced demand for animal feed. The spot market for supramax bulkers performs the strongest right now, logging the only month-on-month gain among all size classes and also the highest spot earnings in absolute terms. The pulse of trade was quickening right after Chinese New Year in both basins. The biggest jumps were recorded in the US Gulf with fixtures for fronthaul business (petcoke to Japan) surging to over 20,000 $/d. The Black Sea was also getting vibrant again with plenty of fresh grain stems. Rates in the North Pacific and in southeast Asia firmed up to 7,500-8,000 $/d, assisted by a surge in Chinese steel cargoes for Asian and long-haul destinations which absorbed quite a bit of tonnage. In the handysize segment, the Atlantic showed rapidly improving levels as fresh cargoes emerged in the Black Sea, the US Gulf and on the East Coast of South America, with larger handies fixing 7,000’s (Black Sea) up to around 9,500 $/d (US Gulf). Only north continent Europe was still quiet. The tone in the Pacific was gradually firmer but still lagging some way behind the Atlantic, with round trips typically concluded in the 6,000-7,000 $/d range. Of note, the mpp market also seems to have been affected by the earlier downturn in dry cargo rates around Chinese New Year. The Toepfer Multipurpose Index for 12,500 dwt F class ships basis 6-12 month periods dropped from 7,593 to 7,457 $/day in February. Larger 28,000-32,000 dwt mpp units were reportedly fixed in the Far East at lower levels in the 7,500-9,000 $/d range. Contrary to the deepsea dry bulk market, the European shortsea trades are still caught in a slight downward spiral, with all three benchmark indices in our market compass down month-on-month. The anticipated recovery did not materialise during February and spot tonnage lists were still outweighing cargo offers in virtually all regions, brokers said. Big container vessels sold out The container ship charter market finally seems to have bottomed out, the New Con- Tex was down just 1.0% month-on-month but with a steady tendency at the time of writing. The highlight of the month was continued brisk demand for the largest gearless vessels in excess of 8,000 TEU which resulted in gains of 2,000-3,000 $ over January levels to 18,000-19,000 $/d. The driver was MSC with a spate of extensions and fixtures of vessels, followed by Chinese charterer. The smaller 5,500- 6,500 TEU segment registered improvements as well, with levels in the Atlantic soaring to high 12,000’s $/d versus 9,000- 10,000 $/d in Asia. Little by little, the firmer tone began to spread into certain smaller classes such as the widebeam panamax segment with fixtures reportedly up in last done at high 14,000’s $/d. Gearless 2,700/2,800 TEU ships got hoovered up quickly in the Mediterranean at slightly higher rates in the low 9,000’s while standard geared 1,700 TEU ships in Asia recorded a slight increase in the low 7,000’s $/d after a long drought. In the feeder sector, market conditions have significantly improved in North Europe and the Mediterranean. Rate levels went up by several hundred dollars or euros for various vessel classes.mph Month on Month 386 - 1.0 % Container freight market WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,656 $/FEU - 15.0 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,979 $/FEU - 10.0 % Average rates spot / up to 4 weeks validity WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry Dry cargo / Bulk Baltic Dry Index 630 - 33.0 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 5,988 - 55.2 % Panamax 4TC average 5,296 - 20.6 % Supramax 6TC average 7,443 + 9.7 % Handysize 6TC average 5,110 - 14.0 % Forward / ffa front month Mar´19 ($/day) Capesize 180k 6,392 - 55.3 % Panamax 7,092 - 2.9 % MPP February ’18 $ 6,929 Tankers Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 831 - 4.0 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 605 - 9.5 % shortsea / Coaster TMI Toepfer’s Multipurpose Index February ’19 $ 7,457 The index is based on a 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6-12 months TC and represents the monthly assessment from operators, owners and brokers. Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 2,600 €/d - 7.1 % HC Shortsea Index 17.97 - 2.6 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 565 - 12.7 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Data per 21.02.2019, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal – 156. Jahrgang – 2019 – Nr. 3 11

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