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HANSA 03-2017

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Märkte | Markets

Märkte | Markets Demand for large tonnage fuels hope The container ship charter market has been busier than expected, with a rash of fixtures for big vessels after Chinese New Year, writes Michael Hollmann The first two months of the year are usually not too exciting. However, this time it seems that operators are moving early to cover their capacity needs for the summer peak season, judging by the spate of period fixtures for large and very large container ships in the first half of February. The restructuring of the liner alliances effective April is believed to be adding momentum to charter demand as carriers rejig their vessel systems. There is also a more positive trade outlook for 2017 following the return to growth on the Asia/Europe route and further expansion of the transpacific and intra-Asia trades last year. Although the huge overhang of unemployed container vessels rules out steep improvements, there is a growing feeling »that we are seeing the very early stages of a modest recovery,« as the Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association declared. Average charter hires for ships up to 4,250 TEU are up more than 2% over the past four weeks, with geared 2,500 TEU and gearless 2,700 TEU and 3,500 TEU (12 month periods) spearheading the rise. Although an estimated 160 tramp ships across all sizes are currently running spot, positional opportunities in various sectors and regions allow owners to push rates up a little. »Spot/prompt vessel ability appears to be slowing and there are even signs of tightness for specific types and sizes in certain regions,« one British broker observed. In the largest classes, NYK Line reportedly fixed the 9,030 TEU »Czech« for 12- 18 months at a rate in the mid 14,000’s $/ day which would represent a moderate improvement on last done. A sister ship was reportedly fixed to Yang Ming for 13,000 $/ day a couple of weeks ago. Generally, brokers judge prospects for modern 9,000- 11,000 TEU vessels as relatively good based on trade route and liner network trends. Rates for standard 8,500 TEU vessels show a gradual improvement from 8,000 $/ day at the end of last year into the mid and upper 8,000 $/day, while new wide-beam, eco designs in the 6,500–7,000 TEU range obtain more than 9,000 $/day. Maersk was particularly active, fixing the 6,845 TEU »Paxi« at 9,250 $/day and extending the Zodiac-controlled 6,622 TEU sisters »Swansea« and »Cardiff« at 9,800 $/day. Interest for wide-beam 4,600-5,400 TEU ships flared up as well, with KMTC, K Line, MOL and Zim snapping the last available vessels for now at rates of up very high 7,000’s $/day. 3,300–3,800 TEU ships also experienced good demand as borne out by shortening tonnage lists and rates reaching upper 6,000’s $/day. Notable developments in the charterers’ camp include the foray of West Africa specialist NileDutch into a larger vessel segment than before and the emergence of SM Line – set up by Korean SM Group for the takeover of Hanjin’s transpacific business – as charterer for midsize vessels for its planned intra-Asia trade. The feeder ship market in Europe offered a split picture, with rather high activity for ice-class tonnage in North Europe but a continued lack of interest for vessels in the Mediterranean. M TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) FEEDER / HANDY 704 Katrina 8483 2010 g’less 17 25 Sinokor Feb 17 2–6 m Intra-Asia € 4500 812 JSP Rider 9320 2006 g’less 18.5 34.5 Evergreen Feb 17 7–12 m Cont / Baltic trade € 5500 868 Andante 11390 2007 g’less 18 33.3 OPDR / CMA CGM Feb 17 2.5–5 m Cont / Canaries / Morocco € 5250 1036 Hercules J 13200 2009 g’less 18.5 36 Sea Consortium Feb 17 2–4 m Cont / Baltic trade € 6750 1049 Marconneticut 12500 2007 g’less 18.0 SITC Feb 17 8–10 m Intra-Asia (ext) 7150 1118 Frisia Alster 13760 2006 geared 19.5 39 Gold Star Line/ Zim Feb 17 4–7 m Intra-Asia 5950 1296 AS Felicia 18350 2006 geared 19.0 45+3 Streamlines /Seatrade Feb 17 7–9 m Europe / Caribbean 7800 1728 Camilla 23045 1996 geared 19 48.5 Transworld Feb 17 14–36 day SE Asia / Bangladesh (ext) 6000 1730 Nordviolet 23673 2015 g’less 18.5 42.4+2.8 K Line Feb 17 21–30 days Intra-Asia 8800 1732 Fritz Reuter 23732 2006 geared 20.6 67+4 Melfi Feb 17 3–5 m Med / Cuba (ext) 6400 1732 Hermann Hesse 23627 2007 geared 20.6 67+4 Hamburg Süd Feb 17 15–45 days Caribbean 6850 SUB-PANAMAX 2204 Ubena 22380 2016 geared 22 Maersk Feb 17 4–12 m Intra-Asia (ext) 8800 2478 Victoria Schulte 33850 2005 geared 22 103+4.5 Maersk / MCC Feb 17 4–12 m Intra-Asia 5750 2524 Tiger 33500 2005 geared 23 Agriex Feb 17 21–18 days USEC / Caribs (ext) 12350 2824 Santa Bettina 39277 2007 g’less 23 111 CMA CGM Feb 17 3–7 m Europe /Australia (ext) 6600 2872 Angeles 35538 2010 g’less 21.3 Hapag-Lloyd Feb 18 26–52 days transatlantic 6100 3653 Martha Schulte 47000 2012 geared 23.1 122 CMA CGM Feb 17 6–12 m Med / West Africa (ext) 6600 3739 Domingo 51087 2001 geared 23.0 108+8 NileDutch Africa Line Mar 17 2–6 m Europe / Med / West Afr. 6000 TRADITIONAL PANAMAX AND WIDEBEAM 4253 Beatric Schulte 50500 2009 g’less 21.0 133 Heung-A Feb 17 30–90 days intra-Asia trade 4250 4600 Northern Priority 59186 2009 g’less 24.0 Sea Consortium Feb 17 21–45 days Southeast Asia 4200 4620 RHL Constantia 57500 2013 g’less 25.20 K Line Feb 17 2–6 m Far East / South Africa 6500 5117 Bellavia 66160 2005 g’less 25.0 150.3 Mitsui OSK Line Feb 17 80–180 days Intra-Asia 4350 5466 Wide Bravo 65150 2014 g’less 21.0 84+5.3 Maersk Feb 17 12–20 m Far East /Australia 7500 5466 Clemens Schulte 65357 2014 g´less 21.50 91.5+5.3 KMTC Feb 17 4–6 m Far East / India 7750 LARGE AND VERY LARGE 5576 March 67170 2004 g’less 25.0 210 Hapag-Lloyd Feb 17 9–14 m USEC / ECSA 6850 5762 E.R. Felixstowe 67500 2000 g’less 26.0 212 NYK Line Mar 17 4–6 m Asia / India 6800 6622 Swansea 80528 2014 g’less 21.0 Maersk Feb 17 3–4 m North Europe / Med (ext) 9800 6845 Paxi 80087 2014 g’less 22.50 118 Maersk Feb 17 6–12 m Far East / India 9250 6966 Texas 79560 2009 g’less 23.0 NileDutch Africa Line Mar 17 10–12 m Far East / West Africa 6750 8266 Agamemnon 103772 2007 g’less 25.60 Pacific International Lines Feb 17 12 m transpacific (ext) 8800 8411 Northern Jamboree 107500 2010 g’less 23.0 192 Hapag-Lloyd Mar 17 3 m Asia / East Coast South Am. 8500 Charter deals February / all information without guarantee 16 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 154. Jahrgang – 2017 – Nr. 3

Märkte | Markets Muted outlook for coasters The shortsea dry cargo market in Europe continued to suffer throughout most of 2016 despite improved economic activity in the Eurozone. Freight levels today afford shipowners only thin margins at best. According to UK shortsea shipbroker HC Shipping & Chartering, the outlook right now is more of the same. HANSA talked to its chartering director Mark Harrison COMPASS CONTAINER SHIP T/C MARKET 340 320 300 15.09.16 16.02.17 2016 was a very flat year in the shortsea dry cargo market though not as disastrous as in the deepsea sector. Will 2017 turn out better? Mark Harrison: It’s impossible to know how the market will fare but at this stage there’s nothing to indicate any imminent or significant change in trading conditions. The brief upturn through November/December has meant the market is starting 2017 in better shape than it did in 2016. Beyond that it’s hard to see a great deal of difference. Political turmoil, war and sanctions (Russia, North Africa etc.) weighed down on shortsea trades in the past years. Have owners/operators come to terms with the new environment? Harrison: Recent events in Ukraine, Libya and currently Syria naturally have an impact but it’s not necessarily ongoing in all of those areas or causing a complete block on trade. Furthermore they represent relatively small areas within the whole market which for the most part is trading normally, therefore I don’t see this as having a major impact. Consolidation has picked up in earnest in other sectors. Do you expect more M&A or pool formations in the shortsea sector? Is there a need/opportunity for it? Do you see interesting new commercial solutions? Harrison: Have seen some evidence of consolidation (Nova Marine/Carisbrooke) and banks losing patience (Flinter/Abis) but ultimately the same vessels remain, therefore so does supply. There’s scope and need for new commercial solutions but perhaps not a lot of joined up thinking. Things like pool formations are notoriously diffcult to manage. Some warn that shortsea shippers will face a capacity dilemma one day because of lack of newbuilding projects for coasters. Do you agree there’s reason to be concerned? Harrison: There’s no doubting the lack of newbuildings over recent years, particularly below 4,000 mts so presumably if demand to move cargo in that size remains constant there has to be a problem at some point. Generally, charterers tend to be a bit more flexible on age, especially in the 2,000–3,000 mts size. There appears no real appetite for investment presently and it’s hard to see how that’s going to change. The current economic climate seems to be cultivating a mainly short term approach, I’m not sure how much focus or planning is being applied to a problem that’s still 10-15 years down the road. How do you see the shortsea chartering evolving over the next 5 years? New requirements or logistics strategies owners have to adjust to? Harrison: Potentially further consolidation amongst charterers leading to more extensive vetting/compliance procedures and counter party risk assessments which would impact even more on short sea for reasons mentioned above (ageing fleet etc.). Possibly increasing pressures on road infrastructure might make a political issue encouraging the movement of bigger volumes by sea, thus stimulating investment in this sector. M 280 Month on Month 305 + 2.3 % CONTAINER FREIGHT MARKET WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1678 $/FEU - 21.8 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1958 $/FEU - 12.6 % DRY CARGO / BULK SHORTSEA / COASTER TANKERS Average rates spot/up to 4 weeks validity WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry Baltic Dry Index 710 - 24.6 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 5,247 - 57.5 % Panamax 4TC average 7,402 - 5.5 % Supramax 6TC average 7,395 + 5.2 % Handysize 6TC average 5,682 - 11.5 % Forward / ffa front month March ($/day) Capesize 180k 6,975 - 17.4 % Panamax 7,990 + 16.9 % Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 2,450 €/d - 4 % HC Shortsea Index 16.21 + 0,5 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 609 - 1.8 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 850 - 15.0 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 596 - 3.2 % BUNKERS IFO 380 Rotterdam $/t 305 - 2.0 % MGO Rotterdam $/t 476 + 2.0 % Forward / Swap price Q2/17 IFO 380 Rotterdam $/t 300 + 1.1 % Data per 16./17.02.2017, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal – 154. Jahrgang – 2017 – Nr. 3 17

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