MÄRKTE | MARKETS Ton
MÄRKTE | MARKETS Ton mile boost shakes up markets The suspension of Red Sea transits by a majority of vessel operators in all segments due to the ongoing attacks by Houthi rebels has radically shifted the supply/demand balance in container shipping – at least in the short run. By Michael Hollmann While freight rates are showing signs of levelling off after steep increases on some routes as this issue of HANSA goes to press, other specialized dry cargo segments such as ro/ro and multipurpose/heavy lift shipping are yet to see the full impact, according to market insiders. A look at our market compass bar on the opposite page shows just how profound the effect on container freight rates has been. Spot freights on Far East/Europe have tripled and those for transpacific eastbound liftings have doubled since the end of last year – within just four weeks. The surge in rates is reminiscent of the price jumps during the pandemic although absolute levels are still just a third of those reached at the peak in 2022. London broker Clarksons estimates that the large-scale re-routing of services from the Red Sea/Suez Canal route around the Cape of Good Hope is pushing up ton mile demand in container shipping by +8.4 %, compared with a negative –7% impact on fleet supply due to port congestion at the height of the corona boom. The difference is that the pandemic hit during a time of relative fleet stagnation while the Red Sea crisis takes place amid a record year of newbuilding deliveries. Hence, overall fleet utilisation is unlikely to reach a limit as it did in 2022. Even so, the period from end of January until mid-February is expected to see massive space shortages especially in the Asia/Europe trade. The additional 7–14 days transit time will result in fewer vessels making their next scheduled loading dates at a time of peak shipping demand before factories in China close down for several weeks for Lunar New Year (10 February). More ships needed than available Hong Kong-based analysts Linerlytica calculate that some 70 additional mainline ships would be necessary for all weekly sailings to be performed according to schedule in the coming weeks. The problem is that the charter market offers hardly any surplus tonnage at short notice. Also, any spot ships available are smaller than 3,000 TEU, against 13,000+ TEU on regular vessels in the Asia- Europe trade. Yet, freight rates have shown signs of steadying at around 5,000 $/FEU in late January, with market players undecided whether the 6,000 $/FEU mark, officially proclaimed by some container lines, could still be reached. Consultants from the shippers’ side such as Transporeon and supply chain software house Setlog have warned clients that shipping space is likely to start relaxing from March (Setlog) or from Q2 onwards. Over in the charter market, hire rates for container ships remain on the ascent. Demand for extra loaders in the Far East pushed up average rate levels by almost 18 % within a month, according to the ConTex. Enquiry by operators continues to be strong and the prospect of space tightness and lucrative freight rates has triggered a rush for early extensions of ships in direct continuation, brokers report. One of the areas showing particular activity is the Mediterranean feeder trade where new loops are put in place to allow mainline ships to turn back to Asia at hubs in the Western Mediterranean. The car carrier sector is the secondmost affected segment by the current cri- VIEWPOINT One fourth of capacity crippled by Red Sea crisis The space shortages for shippers created by the withdrawal of liner shipping from the Red Sea are likely to worsen until early February. Hapag-Lloyd has reactivated idle vessels and is optimising port rotations to relieve the pressure, as Nils Haupt, the company’s senior director corporate communications explains. Nils Haupt Hapag-Lloyd How do Hapag-Lloyd and alliance partners cope in managing disruptions from voyage diversions around the Cape of Good Hope? What are your biggest concerns operationally and commercially? Nils Haupt: Cape routing adds 7–10 days on top of proforma transit time depending on the service in question. Hapag- Lloyd and its partners decided to mobilise idle ships from THE Alliance pool to fill certain gaps caused by Cape routing. Even so, there is a capacity gap versus plan of ~27 %. Besides ships being delayed, stocks of empty equipment are suffering as well. For the Eastern Mediterranean we plan to proceed with our existing MD3 to serve these markets directly. In addition, Hapag-Lloyd is looking into certain extra loader voyages to be deployed into that region. Commercially, our focus remains on providing sufficient vessel and equipment capacity to serve our customers’ needs as well as possible. © Hapag-Lloyd 12 HANSA – International Maritime Journal 02 | 2024
900 650 27.07.23 400 ConTex 25.01.24 January ary '23 15,900 0$ TMI – Toepfer's Multipurpose urpo pos Index January ary '24 11,660 16 1,6 60 $
