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HANSA 02-2020

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MÄrkte | Markets Container markets holding up Shipping markets are enduring heavy falls in the run-up to Chinese New Year, with only container shipping showing a fairly robust performance both on the cargo/liner side and in vessel chartering. By Michael Hollmann The New ConTex has only suffered a modest 2.3% decline in the period between end of December and Chinese New Year on 25 January. Fixing levels are more or less stable except small reductions mainly in the handy and feeder classes below 3,000 TEU. Tonnage availability in the charter market continues to be tight and dropped even a little further at the start of the year based on Alphaliner figures. The data showed that just 45 non-operator owned (»tramp«) vessels – all smaller than 3,000 TEU – were in spot position in early January, totalling just under 66,000 TEU of capacity. »The charter market for vessels above 3,000 TEU is sold out,« Hamburg chartering broker Blue Net said in a research note. More ships idled Hansa 181x44.qxp_IMMH 09.02.17 17:52 Seite 1 The main driver for the shortage of capacity continues to be »time out of service« for scrubber installations. Ships with an aggreate capacity of around 1.04 mill. TEU were undergoing re trofits or waiting for yard slots in early January, approaching 5.0% of global capacity. In addition, more liner-operated ships were temporarily idled due to blank sailings amid the winter low season. It caused the overall idle fleet (liner + tramp, chartered + unemployed) to 1.4 mill. TEU or 6.1% of world fleet capacity as per 6 January. Within the tight supply limits posed by the idle fleet, chartering activity was maintained at reasonable levels throughout most of January. Several brokers stated that albeit fixing volumes were not overwhelming, the market had seen much worse during the low season between Christmas and Chinese New Year. In unserem Portal HANSA+ vereinen wir eine Übersicht wichtiger Kennzahlen der Märkte. Sichern Sie sich den Zugriff auf Fracht- und Charterraten in der Container-, Bulk- und Tank schifffahrt, Bunkerpreise, MPP-, Shortsea- und Umschlagindizes, Ölpreise und vieles mehr … Erfahren Sie mehr über alle Optionen jederzeit unter Anecdotal reports suggest that forward enquiry for classic post-panamax vessels includig modern wide-beam tonnage (min. 37 m breadth) for delivery post-Chinese New Year started to swell already. This was borne out by the fact that despite zero spot availability, a couple of post-panamax fixtures features already featured in broker reports early in the year. The reported rates point to a stable market. The 8,241 TEU »YM Utopia« is reported to be joining West Africa specialist NileDutch for two years at 28,000 $/ day, and the 8,586 TEU »Mediterranean Bridge« got chartered by CMA CGM for twelve months at 29,750 $/d. The latter transaction is linked to a scrubber installation, fuelling speculation that there might be a further gainshare agreement in place on top of the headline charter rate. Further down the line, the 6,402 TEU »Dimitra C« was fixed and failed by Zim at 25,000 $/d, with a period employment believed to be under negotiation with Hapag-Lloyd now. Following a (more than) doubling in rate levels for post-panamaxes throughout 2019, the outlook for this year is considered to be strong as well. Brokers are citing a slowdown in newbuilding deliveries in the 5,500-11,000 TEU sectors and the ongoing drawdown of large tonnage for scrubber retrofits during the first half of the year as support factors. Panamax chartering activity was fairly brisk during January as one operator after the other brought fresh requirements to the market, partly aimed at replacing ships berthed in shipyards for scrubber installations. Panamaxes are also filling in for larger post-panamaxes, with a growing number of »tandem« sailings, meaning two panamaxes replacing one post-panamax sailing. While standard panamaxes continued to be fixed at stable levels in the mid- Meer erleben im Herzen der HafenCity KAISPEICHER B KOREASTRASSE 1 | 20457 HAMBURG TEL. 040 300 92 30-0 | WWW.IMM-HAMBURG.DE GEÖFFNET: TÄGLICH 10 BIS 18 UHR 8 HANSA International Maritime Journal 02 | 2020

Orders & Sales New Orders Container Activity picked up slightly. In the bigger segment, Eastern Pacific ordered six 12,000 TEU dual-fuel vessels for delivery in 2022, costing 128 mill. $ each. Evergreen placed an order for four 1,800 TEU units at Hyundai Mipo. They are priced in the range of 25 to 28 mill. $ each. Secondhand Sales Container Activity increased slightly, we recorded 8 transactions including 3 en bloc deals. Capital Product Partners purchased the 10,000 TEU vessels »Athos«, »Aristomenis« and »Athenian« (9,954 TEU, 2011/Korea) for 162.6 mill. $. They are long-term time chartered by Hapag-Lloyd until April 2024. In the feeder segment, Eimskip sold the 1995-built »Laxfoss« and »Godafoss« to an undisclosed buyer for 1,95 mill. $ each incl a charter back. Furthermore, Singapore-based Columbia Shipmanagement sold the 2010 built »Cape Nassau« to Asian buyers. The 1,732 TEU vessel was acquired for 6.85 mill. $. Demolition Sales Scrap prices in the Sub-Continent kept a stable and firm level. Container ships are now obtaining levels in excess of 0/ldt. »Sinokor Ulsan« and »Sawasdee Laemchabang« were sold en bloc for 2/ldt. Furthermore, Evergreen sold »Ever Develop« for 0/ldt and »Ever Dynamic« for 5/ldt. JG Container ship t / c market 450 400 350 23.07.19 Container freight market WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 2,072 $/FEU + 3.7 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,588 $/FEU + 10.7 % Dry cargo / Bulk 23.01.20 Month on Month 426 • - 2.3 % Baltic Dry Index 576 - 47.2 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 5,071 - 64.6 % Panamax 4TC average (74k) 6,425 - 34.5 % Supramax 10TC average (58k) 6,002 - 27.6% Handysize 6TC average 4,626 - 34.5 % Forward / ffa front month Feb’20 ($/day) Capesize 180k 6,444 - 49.5 % Panamax 74k 7,068 - 6.5 % MPP January ’19 $ 7,593 MÄrkte | Markets TMI Toepfer’s Multipurpose Index January ’20 $ 7,393 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6-12 months TC Tankers Shortsea / Coaster Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 2,900 - 14.7 % HC Shortsea Index 18.75 - 0.5 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 504 - 7.4 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Bunkers COMPASS Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 1208 - 24.6 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 646 - 32.5 % VLSFO 0.5 Rotterdam $/t 511 - 6.0 % MGO Rotterdam $/t 536 8.5 % Forward / Swap price Q2 / 20 VLSFO 0.5 Rotterdam $/t 474 - 9.4 % Data per 23.01.2020, Alterations within four weeks 13,000’s–14,000 $/d, mainly for very short periods, a growing number of scrubber-fitted units obtained significantly higher rates and for much longer periods. The most active charterer was MSC, which reportedly fixed the private-equity-owned 5,044 TEU »MP the Belichik« at 19,000 $/d for minimum 2.5 years and the 4,363 TEU »Mattina« at 17,000 $/d for 24 months. Rates down for sub-panamaxes Trading in the sub-panamax segments was more muted, with mainly short requirements getting fixed for gearless 2,700/2,800 TEU and for geared 2,500 TEU ships. The latter suffered under a build-up of spot positions especially in the Atlantic where rate levels consequently slipped towards 9,000 $/d except for high-reefer units. Gearless sub-panamaxes saw rates deteriorating slightly towards the low $ 10,000’s. The feeder segments below 2,000 TEU provided a reasonable flow of fixtures but only for short employments in Asia, and business was not enough to prevent rates for 1,700 TEU vessels from edging slightly lower. For the smallest feeders of 1,100 TEU and less, brokers reported relatively steady conditions in the Med and in Asia, with rates moving sideways. However, the continent/North Europe market appeared heavily overtonnaged. More than a dozen ships were in lay-up or spot position in mid-January and plenty of redeliveries coming up. Pressure on rates intensified as illustrated by the reported extension of the 1,084 TEU »Sonderburg« by Unifeeder at 6000 €/d for 2-4 weeks Baltic trading – down from 6,350 €/d with the same charterer in mid-December. n A »hard landing« in the dry cargo market January turned out to be a devastating month for the bulk carrier spot market. All vessel segments suffered steep falls in time charter equivalents, with index average rates falling below operating costs. Prior to Chinese New Year, time charter averages dropped just below 5,000 $ day for capesize vessels, to around 6,000 $ both for panamaxes and supramaxes and to 6,500 $/d for larger handies (38,000 tdw), making the smallest ships the »top earners« within a distressed market. The collapse came against the expectations. Owners entered the new year in a fairly upbeat mood as analysts were anticipating tonnage shortages due to bunkering and schedule disruptions amid the transition to low-sulphur fuels (»IMO 2020«). Reports suggest that there were in fact substantial delays in bunker deliveries in many locations. However, the drop in chartering demand ahead of Chinese New Year was too heavy for bunker-related vessel delays to have any positive impact on rates. London-based Maritime Strategies International (MSI) warns that the bulker spot market is set for a »dismal Q1«, citing falling steel demand in China, supply issues for iron ore in Brazil and a accelerating newbuilding deliveries (annualised +4.8% in Q1). Spot earnings will remained entrenched below levels of December 2019 during the coming months, warned MSI dry bulk analyst William Tooth who predicts it will take until June for earnings to recover marginally, »particularly for geared bulkers supported by strong grains exports from Europe and the former Soviet Union.«mph HANSA International Maritime Journal 02 | 2020 9

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