Schifffahrt | Shipping
Schifffahrt | Shipping The world cruise fleet is growing faster than ever before. The expected figures for 2018 are 322 ships (oceangoing with more than 100 lower beds), 558,000 beds and 22.2 mill. gt. 17 newly built ships will join the fleet in 2018 and – up to now – only one is known to leave the fleet of the past year. The average size rises to 68.840 gt per ship. This is nearly the size of the »Norway« when she entered the cruise market as largest cruise ship of the world in 1980. The total capacity of the fleet in lower beds is always climbing up independent of a small or large order book. The number of ships was in stagnation for a few years when more old ships went out of business, but now it is increasing faster than ever. In 2016 and 2017 many new vessels were added to the fleet and the newbuilding activity is further increasing in the years to come. Due to the small number of new ships around 1980 and the expected life span of 40 years of cruise vessels the order book will nearly completely result in net additions to the fleet capacity. Industry trends Last December, the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) has again published the 2018 »State of the Cruise Industry Outlook and Cruise Travel Trends«. Mentioned are a greater focus on sustainable tourism, multigenerational cruising and the younger generation embracing river cruising among others. Most interesting for the industry seems to be the short statement that »all budgets will cruise«. The report found »that almost all income brackets are cruising. Ships and Beds 1988 - 2018 In fact, a third of the cruisers surveyed who have taken a cruise within the past three years, have a household income less than 80,000$. While the data show cruising does skew a bit more to the affluent consumer than other types of vacations, the report indicates almost all levels of income enjoy cruise vacations.« This is clearly due to the low basic tariffs on the many big ships and finally results in more and more diversified ship types. The mass market ships are becoming bigger and bigger – 5,000 beds is the new standard for operators not only in America but also in Europe and Asia – while the more affluent consumer looks for more individual trips on a fast growing number of small excursion vessels or on luxury ships with less than 1,000 beds. More and more operators of large cruise vessels offer a special club class on the upper decks of the ships with improved service and own restaurants, bars and spa. This reminds of the old days of liners with two or more separated classes for passengers where highest luxury and pure transport were offered in separate departments of one vessel. Nowadays there are again different levels of cabins, food and service, but much more entertainment and animation is available for all. The CLIA also published the new estimations for demand. The number of cruises sold in 2016 was confirmed to be 24.7 mill. The preliminary result for 2017 is 25.8 mill. and the expected figure for 2018 is 27.2 mill. This is an increase by 1.4 mill. but, like in the years before, the final figure could be even higher regarding the huge number of new beds on the market. In the final count China jumped up to the second rank reporting 2.1 mill. passengers. The USA top the statistics with 11.52 mill. guests and the Germans fell to the third rank with 2.02 mill. However, Germans still spend more cruise days at sea because of the shorter Chinese trips. Otherwise, the Chinese already represent 12% of all passengers making landings in Antarctica. This ranking is also led by the Americans (33%) while Australia, Germany and the UK follow on ranks three to five. Not an industry trend but heavily affecting it has been the weather recently. The hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea not only caused many deviations from regular cruise routes but also to heavy damages in port facilities and destinations. Some ports remained closed for weeks and months for repairs. Royal Caribbean Cruise Line alone calculates the losses suffered to 55 mill. $. Several big operators used the overall good development to increase the service charge which has to be paid by the passenger if he has no objections. Smaller companies which are not trying to calculate lowest tariffs, prefer to include this service charge in the fares. The environment consciousness is growing: While more and more new big ships will use LNG as fuel this is not yet intended for the new expedition ships. The reason for the difference is just the availability in remote destinations. Norwegian Cruise Line has meanwhile installed scrubbers on seven ships of various types, new and old ones, to reduce air emissions. This looks like more than some test installations and nourishes hopes that the entire fleet can be fitted with such devices. 1990 1991 1992 1993 Ships and beds 1988–2018 Ships and Beds 1988 - 2018 1994 600 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 500 400 300 200 100 Ships 1,000 lower beds 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f Ships 36 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 2 1,000 lower beds
1,000 Beds 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Additions and deletions of capacity 1988–2020 1988 1,000 Beds 1989 45 1990 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Additions and Deletions of capacity 1988 - 2020 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Net additions Withdrawn Newbuilding orders Expected scrapping Schifffahrt | Shipping 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Hader The growing order book The order book is once more the highest ever summing up to 222,000 lower beds in the end of 2017, the options and letters of intent not included. It stood above 80,000 beds just before the terror attacks of New York and close to 100,000 before Net additions Withdrawn Newbuilding orders Expected scrapping the world financial and economic crisis. For a deeper analysis, it is worth to take a closer look at the world order book according to operator groups and some single brands (see p.39). The brand AIDA had twelve ships with 25,000 beds and an order book of 10,000 beds at the end of last year. This means a fleet growth of 40% until the delivery of the last vessel in four years. The average age of the ships will be 9,3 years in 2018. The Carnival group as a whole shows a growth of 32% over a wide span of years for the individual brands. The companies of the European and Chinese markets have a larger order book spanning www.martin-membrane.com Advanced Wastewater Treatment Technologies for Vessels & Offshore Guaranteed compliance to hygienic standards. Certified according to IMO standard MEPC.227(64) with nutrient removal and to CDNI. Life is good – with clean water Friedrichstraße 95 10117 Berlin | Germany phone: +49 30 20964400 www.martin-membrane.com HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 2 37
