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HANSA 02-2018

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Märkte | Markets

Märkte | Markets Charter demand ramps up again Hire rates for container ships on a firm path ahead of Chinese New Year. Scarcity of tonnage in most segments worsening, writes Michael Hollmann The container ship charter market started out this year the way it closed off last year – on an upbeat note that seemed to grow stronger and stronger. Charter rate levels survived the festive season largely undented and continued to improve week after week driven by higher-than-last-done fixtures particularly for geared 2,500 TEU and 1,700 TEU ships, but also for panamaxes and modern very large gearless ships. By mid-January, rate barometers such as the New ConTex and the Howe Robinson Containership Index were up around 40% and 57% year-on-year, with fixing levels for certain ship types and periods even up over 100% year-on-year. Even though tonnage demand is bound to soften to some extent around Chinese New Year in mid-February, the positive momentum so far surpasses all expectations. During most years, the period between Christmas/New Year and Chinese New Year is characterized by flagging charter demand until carriers start boosting their fleets again as from early spring/ late winter in preparation for the summer peak season. This year, the flow of charter fixtures looks rather strong for this time while tonnage availability is already much reduced following a very chartering period last year. According to London broker Howe Robinson, the number of spot/prompt vessels dropped to its lowest level (below 30 vessels) since early 2015 just before the charter market rallied on strong ex tra demand for ships due to labour-related delays in the US West Coast ports at the time. Back in November 2016 oversupply in the charter market had reached its peak at over 290 spot vessels. Rate levels took quite a step up for modern very large vessels already in the first days of the year on the back of fixing spree by Hapag-Lloyd. The German carrier extended a number of 9,000–11,000 TEU charter ships for its Far East/East Coast South America, Far East/Middle East and transpacific services, pushing levels for ships delivering in spring and early summer to 30,000 $ per day. According to brokers, similar tonnage was fixed at low 15,000’s $ back in November. The strength of these fixtures took many by surprise given the fact that some 80 container ship newbuildings with slot intakes in excess of 10,000 TEU are expected to be delivered this year (before »slippage«). Concerns have been voiced that the influx might cause overcapacity in the largest sectors, with ripple effects TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) FEEDER / HANDY 698 Pantonio 8021 2007 gʹless 17.3 27 Eimskip Jan 6 m Continent / Iceland €4500 698 JRS Corvus 8400 2008 gʹless 17.0 30 NYK Line Jan 2–3 m Asia-Hawaii (ext) 5200 977 BFP Galaxy 14035 1997 gʹless 17.0 34+2.4 Cosco Jan 2–5 m Mediterranean (ext) 7000 1008 Elite 13740 2005 gʹless 18.0 35 WEC Jan 3 m Cont / Portugal (opted) €6950 1102 Toronto Trader 13750 2016 geared 18.0 CFS Jan 3–5 m Caribbean 9800 1118 Vega Epsilon 13760 2007 geared 19.6 43.7+1.9 MSC Jan 12 m Mediterranean (ext) 7250 1118 Contship Ray 13760 2008 geared 19.6 43.5 Evergreen Jan 6–8 m Caribbean 8250 1338 Juliana 17127 2009 geared 19.0 Hapag-Lloyd Jan 9–11 m WCoast S. America 9150 1550 Kota Wanga 24693 1996 gʹless 19.0 40.8 HMM Jan 7–11 m Intra-Asia (ext) 8250 1740 Hansa Flensburg 23626 2000 geared 20.5 58+3.5 Italia Marittima Jan 2–4 m East Med trade (ext) 9500 1946 Sinotrans Keelung 24670 2017 gʹless 18.5 Cosco Jan 4–6 m Intra-Asia (ext) 10500 SUB-PANAMAX 2202 Caep Quest 25000 2017 gʹless 19.0 45+2.5 Maersk Jan 1–3 m Intra-Asia (ext) 11500 2478 Buxcontact 33730 2002 geared 22.5 Tehama Jan 9–12 m Indian Ocean 9750 2556 EM Corfu 34654 2001 geared 22.0 80 CMA CGM Mar 12 m Med / Caribs / WCSA (ext) 9950 2741 Fred 37880 2007 gʹless 21.8 85 Wan Hai Lines Jan 1–3 m Intra-Asia (ext) 9500 2824 Irenes Respect 39418 2006 gʹless 23.0 98+4 Wan Hai Lines Jan 50–100 days SE Asia / India 9200 3421 HS Rossini 42000 2012 geared 21.6 106+5 CMA CGM Jan 30–40 days Africa / ECSA (ext) 8000 3450 Navios Verano 42800 2006 gʹless 23.5 Wan Hai Lines Jan 3–5 m Indian Ocean 9500 3635 Martha Schulte 41500 2012 geared 23.1 122 CMA CGM Feb 5–8 m Med / W. Africa (ext) 8500 TRADITIONAL PANAMAX AND WIDEBEAM 4250 Seaspan Saigon 50500 2006 gʹless 22.0 68.5 Hapag-Lloyd Jan 7–10 m Med / West Africa (ext) 9000 4380 Lana 53500 2009 gʹless 24.0 133 Maersk Jan 7–9 m Asia / West Africa 8000 net 4664 RHL Concordia 58187 2012 gʹless 22.0 16+8 Maersk Jan 40–60 days Asia / ECSA 11600 5060 MP The Brady 68017 2005 gʹless 24.3 160 Zim Jan 70–150 days Asia / USEC 8500 LARGE AND VERY LARGE 5990 E.R. Denmark 68176 2002 gʹless 22.0 134.5+8.5 SM Line Jan 50–100 days Far East 13250 7403 Kokura 90456 1997 gʹless 25.0 194.5 Nile Dutch Jan 9–12 m Asia / West Africa 12750 8586 SM Savannah 102517 2011 gʹless 25.6 250 MSC Jan 12+12 m option FE / ME Gulf 11900/17000 9019 Switzerland 111595 2016 gʹless 22.0 Yang Ming Line 24 m Asia / ECSA (ext) 31000 9030 CCNI Andes 113213 2015 gʹless 22.1 Hapag-Lloyd 12 m Europe / ECSA (ext) 30000 9034 Skyros 111890 2014 gʹless 22.0 Hapag-Lloyd Jun 9–12 m FEast / ECSA (opted) 30000 11010 Cape Artemissio 134869 2017 gʹless 22.0 Hapag-Lloyd May 12 m Far East / ECSA (ext) 28000 Charter deals / all information without guarantee 12 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 2

Märkte | Markets Orders & Sales New Orders Container Compared to the previous reporting period, contracting activity in the new building market for container vessels increased. In the second half of December, the orders only applied to smaller vessel types in the range between 640 and 2,700 TEU. Quanzhou Ansheng in China ordered twelve 640 TEU vessels for a total of 118 mill. $. French CMA CGM contracted three 2,200 TEU vessels at Chinese Yangzijiang for 29 mill. $ each. In the first half of January only one order was placed. Japan’s Shoei Kisen ordered ten 11,000 TEU vessels at Imabari with prospects on the construction of ten more. Secondhand Sales Container Activity at the secondhand market for further trading container vessels picked up and was dominated by the feeder segment. MPC Container Ships AS acquired the three Aker-built »Baltic CS 2700 types« from Reederei Harmstorf for 31.9 mill. $. Furthermore, the Oslo-based ship investment company bought the 987 TEU vessel »Annika« and the 1,049TEU vessel »Antigoni«. The price for the vessels is said to be 16.1 mill. $. In the bigger segments, only three transactions were concluded. One transaction included two 2015-built 9,962 TEU boxships, purchased from Greek owner Oceanbulk Container Carriers, as well as a newbuilding with a capacity of 11,000 TEU, scheduled to be delivered in the first quarter of 2018. The ships were acquired by Danish investment company Navigare Capital Partners for a total price of 200 mill. $. Demolition Sales The world market price for iron ore continued its upward trend in the second half of December and the first half of January. During the last couple of days, prices around 77 $ per ton were achieved. In line with these developments, scrap prices are still oscillating above 400 $/ldt – even though recycling activity remained low. Within this period of time only two vessels were sold for scrap. Jan Göldner COMPASS CONTAINER SHIP T/C MARKET 420 18.01.18 380 340 300 17.08.17 Month on Month417 +3.2 % CONTAINER FREIGHT MARKET WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,722 $/FEU + 15.2 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,360 $/FEU + 17.8 % Average rates spot/up to 4 weeks validity WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry due to cascading of vessels into smaller trades possibly reaching down as far as the panamax sector. Large ships »undervalued« For standard large and very large ships of 5,500–6,500 and 8,500 TEU the situation has been more stagnant, with latest fixtures concluded at established levels in the low 13,000’s $ or high 12,000’s $. However, as one German chartering broker pointed out: »If activity continues at this level, rates for 8,500 TEU ships will soon go up. These ships are undervalued at the moment.« Conventional panamax tonnage remains in high demand as well driven by service upgrades by the lines. Spot availability was down to just three units worldwide in early January, allowing rates to continue their gradual recovery. Fixing levels were around 8,000 $ for panamaxes delivering in Asia and 9,000 $ for positions in Europe. Below 3,000 TEU, market conditions were even firmer, especially for geared 2,500 TEU and geared 1,700 TEU ships. A number of charterers were left unable to cover their requirements. Some standard vessels with higher reefer intakes were able to command rates just short of 10,000$. The 1,700TEU sector saw market rates for standard Wenching type vessels escalating to 9,500 $ in the Mediterranean / over 9,000 $ in Asia. In the 1,000–1,200 TEU class and the smallest feeder sectors, oversupply of tonnage has been significantly reduced. In terms of rates, the picture looks very patchy across the globe, though. M DRY CARGO / BULK Baltic Dry Index 1139 - 20.4 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 12,312 - 41.7 % Panamax 4TC average 10,517 - 9.2 % Supramax 6TC average 10,466 - 1.4 % Handysize 6TC average 8,459 - 7.5 % Forward / ffa front month Feb ($/day) Capesize 180k 11,260 - 29.4 % Panamax 10,960 - 2.5 % MPP Januar ´17 $ 6,335 TMI Toepfer's Multipurpose Index Januar ´18 $ 6,678 Dry cargo market down after strong opening The index is based on a 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6-12 months TC and represents the monthly assessment from operators, owners and brokers. The dry bulk spot market enjoyed quite a rebound. It was considered to be the best start to a calendar year since 2014 following substantial improvements in the market balance helped by strong commodity flows across the minerals and grains segments and reduced newbuilding deliveries. However, the first quarter is usually challenging for the dry bulk market due to seasonal declines in iron ore flows from Australia and Brazil, so it was no surprise to see the market losing ground from week 2 onwards. Average time charter trip earnings for capesize vessels have meanwhile dropped more than 40% below levels ahead of Christmas, while forward freight contracts for the front month (February) also recorded a 29% drop to low 11,000’s $. The panamax time charter average was reduced by 9.0% month-onmonth, rates for supramaxes were more stable and even regained some strength in the middle of January, helped by a rebound in tonnage demand in the US Gulf and in North Europe.mph TANKERS Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 715 - 13.3 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 566 - 21.8 % SHORTSEA / COASTER Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 3,350 €/d - 3.0 % HC Shortsea Index 19.20 + 0.4 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 878 + 2.4 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Data per 19.01.2018, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 2 13

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