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HANSA 01-2019

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Märkte | Markets Fresh

Märkte | Markets Fresh start after a volatile year 2018 saw some improvements in container and dry cargo shipping, albeit below expectations, writes Michael Hollmann Market sentiment is more or less muted in the dry and container trades in the final trading days of 2018. Both markets enjoyed significant increases in vessel spot earnings throughout the first half of the year – partly extending into the third quarter – but hopes of another upward push towards the end of the year, especially in dry bulk, were brutally failed. The container ship charter market kept rising in the first half before going into descent in the second half. By and large, all the gains throughout the year have evaporated again by end of December. Market indices like the New ConTex and the Howe Robinson Containership Index close the year at the same level that they started at. The difference is that one year ago the market’s direction was up, today it is down. The individual size classes show a pretty varied performance, though. Period rate levels are down year-on-year in the feeder segments below 2,000 TEU although brokers and analysts have struggled to come up with explanations for the lull. Traditional sub-panamaxes of 2,500-2,800 TEU are still clinging to modest gains while 3,500 TEU and panamax types are enjoying substantially higher market rates than 12 months ago. The picture in the »postpanamax« classes is just as patchy, with 5,500-6,500 TEU ships faced with a deterioration while the 8,500 TEU type has made significant gains following a rash of fixtures since October. Clearly, some vessel classes were coping better than others with a market that continued to be oversupplied. Clarksons estimates the fleet to have grown by 5.8% during 2018, driven by deliveries of ultra-large vessels especially in the first half of the year. By contrast, cargo volumes are believed to have increased by only around 4.5% (Clarksons), perhaps even less. Although forecasts for world economic growth have been revised down slightly, most experts seem to agree that 2019 will see trade growth outstrip fleet growth. With newbuilding deli- Containerships (Period) TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) Feeder / Handy 698 Pacific Tianjin 8,300 2007 gearless 17.5 33 Jin Jiang Shipping Dec 2-4 weeks Intra-Asia 5,300 997 Atlantic Peach 12,015 2009 gearless 18.1 38.5 Bahari Dec 1-2 months Mediterranean (ext) 5,900 1118 Iberian Express 13,760 2008 geared 19.6 39 OOCL Dec 3-6 months SE Asia (ext) 6,300 1700 Nordclaire 23,512 2016 gearless 18.5 45.0 Hyundai Merchant Marine Jan 4-7 months Intra-Asia (ext) 11,000 1740 Bindi Ipsa 23,425 2013 gearless 20.0 70.0 Cheng Lie / CMA CGM Dec 2-6 months Intra-Asia (ext) 7,250 Sub-Panamax 2490 BSL Limassol 34,682 2002 geared 22.0 84 + 4.5 Maersk Dec 4-12 months E. Africa / Indian Ocean 9,400 2544 Johannes-S. 34,330 2008 geared 22.0 88.0 Delmonte Dec 13-15 months USEC / ECCA (ext) 11,950 2741 Fred 37,880 2007 gearless 21.8 85 Wan Hau Lines Dec 2-5 months Intra-Asia (ext) 9,650 2741 Cape Mayor 37,908 2007 gearless 22.0 85 + 4.5 Wan Hai Lines Dec 6-22 days SE Asia 9,950 3091 Daphne 41,800 2006 geared 22.0 105 + 4.5 Global Feeder Shipping Dec 2-4 months Persian Gulf 9,600 3534 TRF Partici 42,000 2010 gearless 22.2 126.0 Hapag-Lloyd Dec 6-9 months North Europe trade 9,750 Traditional Panamax and Widebeam 4250 Navios Indigo 50,500 2007 gearless 24.5 133 Evergreen Dec 3-6 months North Europe / Med (ext) 10,500 4250 Seaspan Manila 50,869 2007 gearless 23.5 145.3 KMTC Dec 3-6 months Intra-Asia 9,900 4957 Wieland 58,000 2014 gearless 22.0 99.5 KMTC Dec 70-90 days Far East / Persian Gulf net 13,000 4992 Mexico 64,780 2002 gearless 24.0 165 + 5.2 Maersk Dec 1-9 months Asia / New Zealand 7,150 5060 MP The Gronk 68,168 2005 gearless 23.0 160.0 Hyundai Merchant Marine Jan 4-10 months Far East / Europe net 7,000 Large and very large 6008 E.R. Amsterdam 67,557 2000 gearless 24.9 191.0 Pendulum Express Lines Dec 3-5 months Intra-Asia (ext) 9,250 6877 Alexis 79,274 2015 gearless 22.5 CMA CGM Apr 60 months worldwide 25,900 8411 Northern Jasper 108,804 2009 gearless 25.0 265.0 Zim Dec 77 days Transpacific 17,000 8586 SM Savannah 102,518 2011 gearless 24.5 247.3 OOCL Dec 3-6 months (sublet from SM Line) 15,500 / 17,500 Bulk carrier (Period) dwt Name Built Charterer Delivery Period Rate ($) Capesize 181,389 Navios Joy 2013 Swiss Marine China, 26 Dec-03 Jan 1 year, redelivery worldwide 18,000 176,838 SM Vision (Korea Line relet) 2008 NYK Huanghua, 15-17 December 3-5 months, redelivery worldwide 16,100 Panamax / Kamsarmax 81,963 Ecopride G.O. 2013 M2M Jingtang, 19 December 4-6 months, redelivery worldwide 12,000 75,395 Aquaknight 2007 Koch South China, 1-10 January 12-14 months, redelivery worldwide 12,000 Supramax / Handy 63,495 Pacific Merit 2018 Meadway US Gulf, 19-24 December 5-8 months, redelivery worldwide 18,000 37,732 Gold Oak 2017 Meadway North Coast South America, prompt 4-6 months, redelivery worldwide 12,000 Charter deals December / all information without guarantee 10 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 156. Jahrgang – 2019 – Nr. 1

Orders & Sales New Orders Container Newbuilding orders only applied to smaller types between 1,800 and 2,700 TEU. Maersk is in negotiations regarding a contract for 5+5 ships of 2,200 TEU. They will cost 25 mill. $ each. Malaysian operator MTT placed an order for two 1,800 TEU ships at Zhoushan Changhong, while Sea Consortium ordered six 2,700 TEUs. veries expected to slow from 1.4 mill. t to 1.0 mill.t, fleet capacity growth may moderate to just around 3.0% versus 4.0+ % global trade growth. This would suggest that charter market rates could climb to much higher levels than in 2018 as liner operators will be forced to take on even more charter capacity to cope with increased business volumes. Some believe that the recent strengthening in short term period rates for 8,500 TEU ships to around 17,000 $/day may be an early indicator for an upswing this year. Brokers already recorded plenty of forward enquiry for ships delivering in spring. CMA CGM even fixed two Hanjin 6900 type ships for 60-month periods at rates close to 26,000 $/day with laycan dates in April. Currently, tonnage in the bigger market sectors is already pretty scarce, with only one vessel in spot position in the 5,300-7,499 and the 7,500-11,000 TEU segments each at the start of December. If there is a burst of activity in February just after Chinese New Year, tonnage availability could quickly dry up, sending rates soaring. There is no doubt that it will be the most efficient vessels reaping the greatest gains. Recent debates at the HANSA Forum showed that charter market players generally expect the spread in rates between old and modern tonnage to widen, as speed/consumption profiles gain maximum attention again. With the transition to more costly low-sulphur fuels starting this year, charterers will clearly favour the most-efficient vessels. Dry bulk missing China boost In the dry cargo sector, there is a heightened degree of uncertainty as the new year dawns. The fourth quarter turned out to be a disaster, with average rates for capesize vessels falling plunging below 8,000 $/day before recovering to around 17,000 $/day by mid-December. Panamaxes and smaller geared bulkers recorded a softening, too, though relatively Secondhand Sales Container The market was less active, the 6,661 TEU carrier »NYK Themis« was acquired by Eastern Pacific. The remaining transactions took place in the feeder segment. The 2016 South Korean-built bangkokmax »Heung-A Laem Chabang« was sold to Kotoko for 20 mill. $. In addition, the 2000 South Korean-built »AS Savonia« was acquired by Vega Reederei for a new low benchmark price of 3,35 mill. $, while »Catharina Schulte« was sold to Tuftonic for 13 mill. $ including. Demolition Sales Scrapping activity decreased, latest sales demonstrate firm price levels, but the current sentiment indicates a slight softening. The falling iron ore prices could be an indication of this. Growing fears over an economic slowdown in China and the impact of a trade war lead to the pressure on prices. Jan Göldner COMPASS ConTainer ship t / c market Märkte | Markets modest by comparison. Average time 400 charter levels for ships from 28,000 dwt to 82,000 dwt are clustered between 9,000 and 13,000 $/day as this issue of HANSA goes to press. It appears that a Month on Month Container freight market 413 - 5.7 % simultaneous slowdown in demand for WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,604 $/FEU - 0.6 % all the main commodities (iron ore, coal, WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 2,077 $/FEU - 23.9 % grain) in China caused the markets to go Average rates spot / up to 4 weeks validity into decline. There is no one explanation, WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry though. Iron ore and coal imports are feeling the impact of winter curtailment Dry cargo / Bulk and anti-pollution measures in China Baltic Dry Index 1401 + 36.0 % while grain importation was restrained Spot time charter averages ($/day) by the trade war with the US. The recent standstill agreement on tariffs between Capesize 5TC average 17,704 + 101.0 % Washington and Beijing brought back a bit of optimism, though, especially for panamaxes, supramaxes and Panamax 4TC average Supramax 6TC average Handysize 6TC average 11,828 11,273 8,929 + 1.8 % + 2.4 % - 4.5 % handies. Reports say that China has resumed buying soya beans in the US, with Forward / ffa front month Jan’19 ($/day) up to 8 mill. t potentially coming up for Capesize 180k 15,958 + 24.3 % shipment in the near to medium term. It would mean significant new business for smaller bulkers. Already, rates for trips ex US Gulf to China and for transpacific Panamax MPP 11,850 + 13.5 % TMI trips have begun to firm up. Toepfer’s Multipurpose Index Dezember ’18 Overall, market sentiment in dry bulk $ 7,518 shipping is still shaken, though. Looking at price levels for freight futures reveals that market participants currently anticipate a sideways trend in spot earnings next year. Average time charter rates for Dezember ’17 $ 6,700 2019 were quoted at around 15,800 $/day versus a 2018 average of 16,500 $ in the The index is based on a 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel capesize sector, 11,800 versus 11,650 $ for a 6-12 months TC and represents the monthly assessment for panamaxes, 11,700 versus 11,500 $ from operators, owners and brokers. for supramaxes and 9,100 versus 8,700 $ for 28,000 dwt handysize bulkers. The European shortsea dry cargo trades had a more successful fourth quarter, with freight rates and vessel earnings climbing well above levels back in Q3. Tankers Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index shortsea / Coaster 1223 + 10.6 % 909 + 40.7 % The seasonal hike was not as pronounced Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 2,850 €/d - 5.0 % as in 2017, though. The HC shortsea index averaged 18.22 in November/De- HC Shortsea Index 18.22 + 7.6 % cember versus 19.12 one year back. Shipbroker ISTFIX Shortsea Index 706 - 1.3 % Norbroker assessed average spot Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index earnings for 3,500 dwt ships at 2,850 €/d tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix in mid-December, against 3,450 €at the Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea end of 2017. n Data per 17.12.2018, Alterations within four weeks 550 525 500 475 450 425 19.06.18 13.12.18 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 156. Jahrgang – 2019 – Nr. 1 11

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