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HANSA 01-2018

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Märkte | Markets

Märkte | Markets Optimism growing in shipping 2017 closing on improved spot vessel earnings. Firmer trend forecast in the new year based on world GDP predictions and orderbook profile, writes Michael Hollmann Hire rates for both container ships and for bulk carriers saw substantial improvements from extremely depressed levels in 2017 and most brokers, consultants and analysts agree that 2018 should see a continuation of the firmer trend, albeit at different speeds. In container shipping, average charter rate levels are expected to improve slightly although upward momentum is likely to be reined in by a spate of deliveries of ultra large newbuildings. For the dry bulk market, the outlook is considered to be more positive thanks to very low fleet growth last year. The final weeks of 2017 saw a continuation of the stable trend in container ship charter rates, with the New ConTex even posting a marginal increase and thus defying typical seasonal patterns that normally see rate levels easing between late autumn and Chinese New Year. Tonnage demand for the largest available ships of 8,000-10,000 TEU did not fall over a cliff as some were expecting, in what reflects the deepsea container lines’ reluctance today to scale back route capacities during winter as they normally do. Hence there was still reasonable fixing activity for ships out of prompt positions and for forward delivery in March and April, brokers said. One 10,000 TEU ship was reportedly committed to Hapag-Lloyd for a 12-month period at around 25,000 $/day while a slightly smaller units secured TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) FEEDER / HANDY 618 MCP Kyrenia 7709 2008 geared 15.0 20 + 1.5 CMA CGM Dec 9-12 months Indian Ocean (ext) 5800 698 Max Pluto 8400 2009 g›less 17.5 26.3 Centrans Dec 5-7 months Intra-Asia (ext) 5000 698 Pengalia 8268 2008 g›less 17.3 27 SCS Multiport Dec 12 months Cont / Baltic €4500 735 Star Comet 7960 2002 g›less 17.5 29 X-Press Feeders Dec 1-2 months Mediterranean (ext) 4800 917 Vega Alpha 10600 2005 g›less 17.5 33 APL / CMA CGM Dec 3-6 months SE Asia / India (ext) 7300 990 Warnow Carp 11979 2009 g›less 18.0 35 + 2 Hasco Dec 2-4 months Intra-Asia 6200 1042 Chattanooga 12580 2012 g›less 18.5 17.5 + 3 X-Press Feeders Dec 4-7 months Intra-Asia (ext) 7675 1102 Max Contender 13760 2008 geared 18.0 41 Hayley Lines Dec Indian Ocean trade (ext) 6100 1118 Vega Fynen 13760 2006 geared 19.6 39.3 OOCL Dec 3-9 months Intra-Asia 6000 1338 Bomar Regent 17108 2007 geared 20.0 46.8 + 3 Seatrade Dec 84-168 days N. Europe / Caribbean 8850 1440 Sima Sadaf 20250 2007 g›less 19.0 54 + 3.5 Yang Ming Line Dec 2-6 months Intra-Asia 7950 1717 Ophelia 21700 2018 geared 19.0 40.5 + 3.5 Rizhao Port Jan 6 months Intra-Asia 10250 1714 Olivia 22000 2013 geared 19.7 45 + 3.5 OOCL Dec 8-10 months Intra-Asia 10250 1730 Leopard 22983 1998 geared 20.0 54.5 X-Press Feeders Dec 3-5 months SE Asia / Bangladesh 8000 1732 RHL Agilitas 23600 2007 geared 21.0 64 + 6 Maersk Dec 2-4 months Caribbean 9000 1756 Nordlily 23673 2016 g›less 18.5 42.4 + 2.8 CMA CGM Dec 3-4 months Intra-Asia (ext) 10500 SUB-PANAMAX 2345 Melchior Schulte 30350 2015 geared 19.0 47.6 + 4.2 Baltic Reefers Jan 45-100 days N. Europe / WCSA reefer 12500 2432 Buxfavourite 33994 1998 geared 20.5 67 + 3 CMA CGM Dec 9-12 months Far East / East Africa 8750 2572 Nordwoge 34800 2006 g›less 22.0 89.5 + 6 Evergreen Dec 4-6 months Intra-Asia (ext) 8650 2770 Ete N 41424 2012 geared 22.0 108 + 5.5 Hapag-Lloyd Dec 3-6 months Persian Gulf 8950 2782 Bright 37000 2018 g›less 18.0 48.7 X-Press Feeders Jan 4-6 months SE Asia / Bangladesh 11950 2796 Calidris 41400 2012 g›less 22.0 98 CMA CGM Dec 6-12 months worldwide 8500 2824 Irenes Rhythm 39462 2007 g›less 22.0 94.0 OOCL Dec 10-14 days Intra-Asia 9750 3091 Lutetia 41800 2005 geared 22.0 105 + 4.5 X-Press Feeders Dec 14-28 days Mediterranean (ext) 8500 3108 Hebe 41800 2008 g›less 22.0 97.5 + 4.5 Oman Shipping Jan 3-5 months Persian Gulf trade (ext) 9000 TRADITIONAL PANAMAX AND WIDEBEAM 4300 Rio Charleston 55345 2008 g›less 24.2 144.5 CMA CGM Dec 4-8 months Far East 7900 4330 Bahamas 52315 2010 g›less 24.0 141 + 7 Zim Jan 3-6 months Asia / West Africa (ext) 8300 4620 RHL Constantia 57500 2013 g›less 23.3 115 + 8 Hapag-Lloyd Dec 1 Far East /Australia round voyage private 5089 Aeneas 63500 2010 g›less 25.0 144 + 8 Vasi Shipping Dec 2-4 months Asia trade 7400 5089 Memphis 68618 2008 g›less 22.9 138 Maersk Dec 2-3 months Far East net 7700 LARGE AND VERY LARGE 6008 E.R. Felixstowe 67500 2000 g›less 25.8 212 Cosco Dec 6-9 months Far East 13250 6494 Hamburg 72982 2009 g›less 26.0 Wan Hai Lines Dec 4-7 months Far East 11250 8073 Seamax New Haven 98500 2005 g›less 25.9 OOCL Dec 1-4 months transpacific trade 12500 8580 CPO Bremen 103773 2009 g›less 25.6 MSC Jan 12 months + option 12 months ww 12500 / 17500 9954 Athenian 118835 2011 g›less 25.7 250 Hapag-Lloyd Jan 2-5 months Far East / Mediterranean 15250 10114 Express Athens 115000 2011 g›less 24.5 247 Hapag-Lloyd Jan 12 months worldwide 25000 Charter deals / all information without guarantee 10 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 1

Märkte | Markets Orders & Sales NB Within the new building market for container vessels, only one order was placed during the last four weeks. Greece`s Cosmoship has ordered four 1,500 TEU vessels at Guangzhou Wenchong in China. The ships are scheduled to be delivered in the second half of 2019. S&P The market for further trading container vessels was less active in the second half of November and the first half of December compared to the previous reporting period. In above 15,000 $/day for a short flexible period that will allow it to seek new employment possibly at much higher levels in the middle of this year. Demand for older standard 8,500 TEU continued as well although rate levels slipped to around 12,500 $/day. Underlying demand for container transportation remains on the way up, illustrated by another all-time high of the ISL/RWI container handling index for November. So it appears that trade volumes justify the carriers’ expansive capacity strategy up till now. Operators managed to grow their business without sparking a major rate war throughout 2017, turning in profits from the second quarter onwards with only a few exceptions. However, spot freights and contract rates, too, were declining as the year progressed, hitting critical levels at the end of the year that should prompt carriers to take a more cautions approach to capacity growth. Based on positive world GDP growth forecasts for 2018 (IMF: 3.7%), there is no reason why container trade growth should weaken from current levels of around +5%. As in the recent past, though, top line trade growth can be expected to yield different results for different vessel segments. Imbalances in supply across all size classes from feeders up to very large vessels already led to a notable disparity in rate developments. For example, handy/feeder vessels of 1,700 TEU were fixing short periods at rates ranging from 8,000 to over 10,000 $/day at the of 2017 whereas conventional panamaxes only achieved mid 7,000’s to low 8,000’s $/ day in most cases. total we recorded twelve transactions including two en bloc deals. Again, the Oslo-based ship investment company MPC Container Ships AS expanded its activities and acquired ten container vessels for a total price of 130 mill. $. Nine 1,700 TEU vessels and an additional 2,800 TEU vessel with an average age of eight years were purchased from South Korean owner Cido Shipping. Furthermore, Hanseatic Lloyd has sold four panamax container vessels for a high price of 27,5 mill. $ each with additional long-term remaining time charters for 27,500 $/ day until 2020. They were purchased by Navios. Demo The scrap price increase observed in the past weeks continued during this reporting period. The positive development of global iron ore prices had its impact on quoted scrap prices. Even though scrapping activity for container vessels remained low with in total five vessels sold for scrap, prices well above 0/ldt were achieved. On the Indian sub-continent, the 1996 built panamax container ship »Fortunate« for example was sold for 467 $/ldt. Jan Göldner In the big picture, all container ship types were in a better position at the end of 2017 than 12 months prior, as illustrated by the ConTex period assessments with year-on-year improvements in charter market rates between +10.0% (1,100 TEU) and 87% (4,250 TEU, 12 months). Based on projected orderbook deliveries and capacity reserves from idle vessels, market developments are likely to be varied again across the spectrum of vessels. The consensus among shipbrokers seems to be that smaller vessels below 4,000 TEU are in a relatively favourable position while larger vessels may have more limited opportunities to obtain rate increases due to rising competition from new ultra large vessels. Deliveries of newbuildings in excess of 10,000 TEU are expected to accelerate from an estimated 67 in 2017 to 89 this year which is going to cause pressure on smaller vessels perhaps down to panamax class through cascading and displacement of ships from their established service loops. Smaller handy/feeder vessels – especially geared types – clearly enjoy a better outlook judging by the delivery profile, with deliveries especially in the 1,500-2,000 TEU and the 500- 1,000 TEU sectors falling sharply this year (to just 10 and 1 units, respectively, according to Alphaliner). The situation will be different next year when newbuilding deliveries are forecast to fall sharply across all sizes, hence 2019 is likely to be the »year of real improvement« in the container market, as one major broker put it. M COMPASS CONTAINER SHIP T/C MARKET 420 380 340 300 20.07.17 19.12.17 Month on Month 404 +1.0 % CONTAINER FREIGHT MARKET WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,376 $/FEU +1.0 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,077 $/FEU -20.0 % Average rates spot/up to 4 weeks validity WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry DRY CARGO / BULK Baltic Dry Index 1547 +11.0 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 23,942 +8.4 % Panamax 4TC average 12,751 +24.7 % Supramax 6TC average 10,766 +10.4 % Handysize 6TC average 9,267 +1.5 % Forward / ffa front month Jan ($/day) Capesize 180k 16,460 -10.6 % Panamax 11,460 +4.5 % MPP Dezember ´16 $ 6,366 TMI Toepfer's Multipurpose Index Dezember ´17 $ 6,700 The index is based on a 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6-12 months TC and represents the monthly assessment from operators, owners and brokers. TANKERS Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 824 -0.4 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 723 +21.5 % SHORTSEA / COASTER Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 3,450 €/d +6.0 % HC Shortsea Index 19.12 +4.4 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 857 +12.7 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Data per 19.12.2017, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal – 155. Jahrgang – 2018 – Nr. 1 11

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