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HANSA 01-2017

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Märkte | Markets Overcapacity continues to weigh heavy 2017 starts on a very weak footing in the container markets. Owners still hope for seasonal gains in charter rates, especially for smaller container ship types, writes Michael Hollmann No doubt, if tramp ship owners were sole masters of their own fate, they wouldn’t be so stuck between a rock and a hard place. The tramp side cannot be blamed for ordering an awful lot of vessels in recent years. Yet the newbuilding orderbook for cellular tonnage amounts to the equivalent of 16% of the existing fleet – thanks to large-scale ordering by liner operators or investors backed by them. The situation is a paradox considering the structural slot oversupply in the global container trades. However, carriers were convinced they need more and bigger ships, bent on bringing down transport unit costs even if they pay for it with sus tained pressure on freight rates. Tramp owners on their part helped contain the pressure from the orderbook in 2016 by sending record amounts of ships to the demolition yards. Net fleet growth is thus estimated to have dropped to below 300,000 TEU last year, according to London shipbroker Howe Robinson, the lowest since the early 1990s! Still there was a hardly positive impact on charter hire rates as liner operators did their utmost to make effcient use of their own capacity. Given the delivery profile of the orderbook, the indications are that 2017 may turn out to be equally challenging for charter shipowners. Ultra-large ships and the tonnage cascading and displacing they cause, are set to intensify, it is feared. As things stand, deliveries of neo-panamax and ultra-large units are about to reach a climax, with almost 90 units between 10,000 and 21,000 TEU slated for completion and commissioning. It takes no genius to identify the resulting employment risks for existing vessels both in the traditional post- and super-postpanamax sectors of 5,500, 6,500 and 7,500-8,000 TEU and in the very large 13,000-14,000 TEU sector. The question is how far the knock-on effects of the cascade will go: will it stop somewhere in the panamax range or will it also cause a major reshuffe and »redundancies« of ships deployed in smaller trades with typical service capacities below 4,000 TEU? Are there any safe hiding places or not? Unfortunately, trade volume growth is unlikely to breach a path out of the impasse. 2015 (and perhaps 2016 as well) saw loaded container traffc growth plunge even below headline world GDP growth. Yes, cargo volumes appear to have picked up somewhat in the closing months of 2016, with the RWI/ISL container handling index staging its strongest increase in many months – from 120 index points in September and October to 122.1 in November. But present forecasts for trade growth on headhaul routes, that ultimately determine demand for tonnage, are still just around 3.0% for the next years. Paris-based Alphaliner – the liner research arm of shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles – puts port TEU Name dwt Built Type Speed Cons. Charterer Laycan Period Rate ($) FEEDER / HANDY 650 Eagle Sky 7,966 1997 geared 14.5 Heung-A 3–6 months Far East 4500 698 Max Pride 8,200 2006 g´less 17.0 27 Sea Velvet Dec 16 1 month Mediterranean 4300 698 Pantonio 8,153 2007 g´less 17.5 32 Maersk Line Dec 16 5–12 days UK /Continent 4200 1008 Alana 13,740 2004 g´less 18.5 35 Unifeeder Dec 16 14 days North Europe € 6300 1036 WES Amelie 13,200 2011 g´less 18.5 Unifeeder 9–14 days Med./Continent 6885 1036 Helena Schepers 13,200 2012 g´less 18.5 X-Press 2–3.5 months Med./Continent 6755 1036 Maasholm 13,200 2012 g´less 18.5 HMM 4–6 months Far East 6500 1043 Hanse Endurance 12,400 2008 g´less 18.0 TS Lines Dec 16 1–3 months Intra Asia 7000 1118 Pine Valley Kontor 13,809 2008 g´less 19.6 41 Wan Hai Lines Dec 16 14–28 days Intra Asia 5500 1118 Karin Rambow 13,760 2005 geared 19.5 SITC 2–3 months Far East (ext) 5500 1118 Iberian Express 13,760 2008 geared 19.5 SITC 10–20 days Far East 5750 1118 Shippan Island 13,760 2005 geared 19.5 Yang Ming Line 1–6 months Far East 5500 1440 Cape Flint 20,312 2006 g´less 19.8 45 K-Line Dec 16 1–4 months Far East (ext) 7100 1700 Nordlion 23,574 2014 g´less 18.5 42.4 Samudera Dec 16 2–5 months Intra Asia (ext) 8500 1740 Konrad Schulte 23,679 2005 geared 19.5 57 Hapag-Lloyd Jan 17 3–6 months UK / Cont./W.Africa (ext) 6200 1815 Bindi Ipsa 23,425 2013 geared 19.5 SITC Dec 16 1–3 months Far East (ext) 6400 1900 Delphis Bothnia 24,700 2016 g´less 18.5 39.2 WEC Lines Dec 16 10–14 days UK /Continent 8500 SUB-PANAMAX 2458 Messini 34,167 1997 geared 21.0 Evergreen Dec 16 4–9 months Persian Gulf (ext) 5500 2524 Tiger 33,082 2005 geared 21.0 81.75 Agriex Dec 16 14 days Caribbean (ext) 12300 2758 Stadt Sevilla 41,253 2010 geared 22.3 100 Marfret Jan 17 11–13 months Mediterranean 7200 3534 HS Debussy 41,975 2009 g´less 22.2 120 Maersk Line Dec 16 2–12 months Middle East /Africa (ext) 5150 TRADITIONAL PANAMAX 4132 Silvia 55,497 2004 g´less 24.0 143 ZIM Dec 16 2–12 months Far East / Med 4000 4252 JPO Virgo 50,360 2009 g´less 24.25 150 Cosco Dec 16 2–10 months Far East 4300 4319 Northern Guild 53,870 2009 g´less 24.0 134 Maersk Line Dec 16 2–12 months Far East (ext) 4150 4380 Lana 54,344 2010 g´less 24.37 144 Maersk Line Dec 16 1–12 months Mediterranean 4150 4600 Bernhard Schulte 59,287 2010 g´less 24.0 133 KMTC Dec 16 1–2 months Far East / Iran / PG 4950 5116 Octavia 66,400 2005 g´less 25.0 ZIM 2–5 months NE Asia / USEC 4250 LARGE AND VERY LARGE 5470 Balbina 65,710 2010 g´less 25.0 185 Cosco Dec 16 3–6 months Asia /Australia / NZ 4600 6078 Chicago 68,037 2003 g´less 25.0 194 CMA CGM Dec 16 12–14 months Far East / USEC 6750 Charter deals December / all information without guarantee 14 HANSA International Maritime Journal – 154. Jahrgang – 2017 – Nr. 1

Märkte | Markets throughput growth at the centre of its supply/demand forecast. The result is only more frustrating: Estimated throughput growth of just 1.6% meets fleet supply growth of 4.8% – a gap of more than 3%! »There are few out there who could be described as optimistic about 2017,« as one major chartering broker points out, adding that it takes massive action in terms of tonnage scrapping and/or lay-ups to bring about any improvement in the charter market. Reshuffing of liner operations Another significant factor – most probably to the detriment tramp shipowners – is the reshuffing of liner operators into three major consortia (THE Alliance, Ocean Alliance, 2M) effective April and pending integration of recent mergers & acquisitions (Hapag/UASC etc.). There is no doubt, that concentration among liner operators has reached an unprecedented scale. Procurement and chartering are among the business areas to be shaken up. If tramp owners felt they had every reason to complain about an imbalance of power between them and the carriers/charterers in the past, they are going to see their bargaining position suffer a lot more in the near to medium-term future. »It will be another hurdle for them (tramp owners) when the charter market recovers, that there’ll be fewer players with whom to do business,« one broker warned its principals last month. Already, some in Hamburg’s chartering sector argue that the market is skewed and MPP market bottoming out The charter market for multipurpose/ heavy lift ships appears to have bottomed out during the final weeks of 2016 following an extremely tough year. The period rate assessment for 12,500 dwt ships (F class mpp type) for 6-12 month durations by Hamburg shipbroker Toepfer Transport remained stable at 6,366 $/day for November. It had reached its low of 6,280 $/day back in September. Clarkson Platou’s average rate for 17,000 dwt and for 12,000 dwt geared mpp vessels basis 12 months charter also remained steady 7,500 and at 6,500 $/day, respectively, in mid-December. With rates as low as they are and a continuing lack of high-value project cargoes, chartering activity continues to be dominated by single trips or ultra-short periods. This should be in the interests both of owners and charterers. that rate levels are 15-20% lower than they should be based on pure tonnage demand and supply – all because of increased market concentration among charterers … Still there should be opportunities for charter rate improvements in 2017 when the fixing peak season kicks in during the second quarter. Brokers kept highlighting a growing shortage of gear less 2,700/2,800 TEU vessels, with only 2-3 spot or near prompt positions circulated in the market. Operators are said to be keeping a close eye on every vessel coming open in the segment. »It’s only a matter of time until this segment sees rates increase,« one Hamburg-based broker declared. A large share of vessels in this class is deployed on intra-Asia connections. Seeing that this trade is still developing very dynamically, the prospects for extra tonnage demand in this sector look favourable. Other market segments that performed above average last year include the North Sea/Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean feeder markets for gearless and geared types of 1,100 TEU and smaller. Two factors inside the shipping market might offer support for the smallest ships, some have argued. First of all, an increase in transhipment volumes driven by growing deployments of ultra-large ships could spur demand for feedering while the inflation in bunker prices should serve to limit supply in the region. Fuel prices (IFO 380 Singapore) have climbed rapidly in recent weeks, rendering repositioning or ballast trips from Asia to the Mediterranean market much more expensive than throughout most of 2016. M In Europe, a 12,700 dwt unit reportedly achieved a fairly firm 8,000 $/day for a trip from the continent to West Africa in late November, while a 17,000 dwt ship with a combined lifting capacity of 120 t fixed a trip out from Europe to the Persian Gulf at 8,500 $/ day. Some other units of around 12,500 and 17,000 dwt capacity secured short trips within the Atlantic or from Europe to the far East at low 6,000’s or mid 5,000’s $/day. In Asia, a large 32,000 dwt vessel (geared, 4 x 60 t) delivering in the Pearl River Delta is said to have secured a trip to the US Gulf at a hire rate of 9,000 $/day. The rare longer term fixtures towards the end of 2016 were rumoured to include two 12 month deals for 12,500 dwt tonnage owned by Singapore’s SE Shipping to Danish operator Thorco at around 7,000 $/day. M COMPASS CONTAINER SHIP T/C MARKET 340 320 300 280 21.07.16 Month on Month 293 -1.7 % CONTAINER FREIGHT MARKET WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,707 $/FEU - 1.9 % WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,479 $/FEU - 16.8 % DRY CARGO / BULK SHORTSEA / COASTER TANKERS Average rates spot/up to 4 weeks validity WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry Baltic Dry Index 927 - 25.3 % Spot time charter averages ($/day) Capesize 5TC average 6,729 - 63.3 % Panamax 4TC average 8,287 - 25.1 % Supramax 6TC average 9,960 + 14.1 % Handysize 6TC average 8,615 + 26.8 % Forward / ffa front month January 2017 ($/day) Capesize 180k 6,958 - 44.9 % Panamax 6,460 - 26.7 % Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 2.600 €/d + 15.55 % HC Shortsea Index 15.82 + 14.2 % ISTFIX Shortsea Index 606 + 4.5 % Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 910 +9.1 % Baltic Clean Tanker Index 552 +21 % BUNKERS IFO 380 Rotterdam $/t 305.5 +17.5 % MGO Rotterdam $/t 464.5 +9.3 % Forward / Swap price Q1 2017 20.12.16 IFO 380 Rotterdam $/t 297 +15.6 % Data per 19.12.2016, Alterations within four weeks HANSA International Maritime Journal – 154. Jahrgang – 2017 – Nr. 1 15

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